But why am I getting a news alert from the Hill that Trump overtakes Harris in Decision Desk HQ/The Hill Election Forecast?

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4943975-trump-harris-election-forecast-shift/

Grrr...this election is working my last nerve.

This election, they seem to have taken a page out of the NYT playbook of bothsideserism

are both over the hill.

They've definitely drifted further right more and more as time has gone on.

At least the YouTube channel.
Used to have Krystal Ball, who's decidedly left, on with a moderate Republican.

Now its unwatchable. Full throated MAGA.

The MSM will hammer it back to a horse race …
And I’m wary news like this will create overconfidence and some may not vote 😐



✌🏻

That's how the "news" networks work anymore. Actual facts and truths are so old fashioned.

negatives.

I hate being pigeonholed into any kind of category. Last thing I've ever been at any point in my life is a low information voter. And every independent I've met in my life has been intelligent and pro-democracy. IOW, they never voted for Trump and have been disgusted by him since day 1. This is why I have a hard time believing this.

You'd have to be low information to be undecided in 2024. How's that instead?

Are decidedly right leaning Republicans and usually vote for Trump. Most of them went independent when Obama was winning at everything. It was a way for them to not feel like such losers and hide the fact they voted for W. And now they use it to camaflage there vote for a dictator.

Glad to know there are some real independents out there.

enough to the right

Indies are becoming the most common registration status in some states.

Note: I don't have data to prove or disprove that.

I do know that both parties have lost registrants to people changing to independent over the past 20 years. It seems logical that people who switch from one party to independent do so because they are unsatisfied with the party. Based mostly on things that I've read, I believe for both parties, dissatisfaction comes largely from those who think their party is too "centrist".

I know a lot of people who used to be Democrats and/or vote consistently Democratic but are registered as independents because they believe the party doesn't fight hard enough for the most progressive policies. I've also heard from plenty of independents who are in the opposite camp - they think republicans are too "liberal". The fact is, most people who are registered independent strongly lean towards one party or the other. The percentage of "truly independent" voters is still very small. That is why when we hear about the views of registered independents, it can be misleading because a high percentage aren't really independent - they are either people who consistently favor republicans but call themselves independent or on the opposite side - people who consistently favor Democrats but call themselves independent.

All that matters is who wins the swing states.

They might actually be harmful, to the extent they encourage voters to think it might be okay to skip voting.

all the up and down polls.

Yet it did. Sometimes we are our own worst enemies.

Were new to average Americans and people weren't recognizing the bull crap they were being fed by all of social media and Putin.

Putin funded every possible disruption from BLM fake leaders and fake controversy, to Jill Stein's fake campaign. He identified individuals to target and sway thanks to all the data Trump and social media gave him. Trump and Putin successfully divided the Democratic party in 2016.

Most everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 was manipulated by Russian propaganda. Even in 2016, it was clear Trump was a monster.

Also GA, AZ etc.

It's odds , not a nationwide poll.

However she has a huge number of new voters and anti Trump voters.

or they won't be voters at all.

If a (national) poll of voters shows Trump's favorability rating at the mid 40's or higher, I have a hard time believing the other results because that's an indicator that they have oversampled Trump supporters.

blue voter wave is building!!!1

Democrats can win the popular vote and still easily lose the election. Sad but true. Take nothing for granted.

To get them to vote? Let's Make it So!

but I am sticking too:

Polls don't vote, people do!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!