Will RFK, Jr., Sink Trump?
I mailed my ballots here in Seattle last night, and noticed when we got to president that (1) Kamala Harris and Tim Walz were right there at the top (Yay!) but also that (2) RFK Jr. was on the ballot in Washington State. I saw elsewhere that he was frantically trying to get his name off the ballots elsewhere, but that he's being overruled by state supreme courts pretty much unanimously.
This got me to wondering - will RFK, Jr., sink Donald Trump? I think back to all of the Nicki Haley votes that she received AFTER she had dropped out and endorsed Trump. I don't think he's going to take many votes from Kamala Harris - the people who are likely to vote directly for Harris are not going to find RFK an attractive alternative, but there are a fair number of Republicans who cannot bring themselves to vote for a Democrat who may nonetheless not be able to stomach Trump, who they would otherwise pull the lever for holding their nose. I similarly can see independent voters doing the same thing.
He may not account for much - perhaps 2-3% in total, but that could make a huge difference between a tight race and blowout, especially in swing states.
Thoughts?
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