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Yavin4

(37,146 posts) Thu Mar 13, 2025, 02:03 PM Thursday

Next week's Federal Reserve meeting should be interesting to say the least

The Fed is not likely going to cut rates even though before the election, the Fed was reducing the rate at a regular pace, but now they've stopped. My guess is that the financial and business communities are growing frustrated and angry at Trump's tariff bullshit. They've been signaling to him through various channels to get him to stop or at least provide clarity on his moves. But that's been to no avail.

The next weapon to use to get Smelvis' attention is the Fed. The Fed will need to heel Trump by stalling any further cuts and being hawkish on any tariff-related inflation. So, next week will be a doozy.

The Federal Open Market Committee is not expected to cut interest rates at the conclusion of its next meeting on March 19 according to fixed income markets. The key thing to watch for may be clues on the likelihood of a May interest rate cut. Currently, markets view a May cut as less likely, but possible. Statements from FOMC policymakers at the March meeting could move those expectations materially.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2025/03/10/fed-likely-wont-cut-rates-on-march-19-heres-what-to-look-for/

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Next week's Federal Reserve meeting should be interesting to say the least (Original Post) Yavin4 Thursday OP

They won't change rates and so aren't likely to make big headlines unblock Thursday #1

That's the common perception, but guidance going forward will swing the markets. Yavin4 Thursday #2

Sure, they can move markets massively with their words unblock Thursday #3

unblock

(54,765 posts)

1. They won't change rates and so aren't likely to make big headlines

Reply to Yavin4 (Original post)

Thu Mar 13, 2025, 02:33 PM

Thursday

But what they say will be interesting. Problem is, Donnie/musk are creating problems rate cuts can't really, or fully, address.

They'll wait for inflation to slow, which will take time while gdp is cratering.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Yavin4

(37,146 posts)

2. That's the common perception, but guidance going forward will swing the markets.

Reply to unblock (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 13, 2025, 02:36 PM

Thursday

If the guidance is hawkish, watch the markets fall. The Fed has a big voice on tariffs.

unblock

(54,765 posts)

3. Sure, they can move markets massively with their words

Reply to Yavin4 (Reply #2)

Thu Mar 13, 2025, 05:15 PM

Thursday

But I'm sure they'll say they will respond to the data, and I suspect the inflation data will not quickly show prices easing, so I'm not expecting a major shift in their guidance.

That said, they should certainly mention the rapidly contracting gdp and merely noting that this has captured their attention could be enough to change interest rate expectations.

I certainly think "higher for longer" is dead.

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