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erronis

(19,242 posts)
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 03:41 PM 13 hrs ago

Remember The Pandemic Supply Chain Problem? -- Digby

https://digbysblog.net/2025/04/27/remember-the-pandemic-supply-chain-problem/

Well, get ready. It’s back.


We've seen postings about Seattle's port being virtually empty. This is Long Beach, CA.

Josh Marshall:

It’s only getting much play in the trade/transport niche press. But pretty real product shortages beginning in mid-May or so are already locked in. They’re maybe a thousand miles out in the Pacific Ocean. Modern trade takes place in gargantuan container ships. There are very detailed records for every one at sea, when it left China, the US port it’s traveling to etc.

I’m doing this from memory so the rough dates may be a few days off. But this last week we were still in a surge of week over week and year over year shipping as shippers and buyers tried to get out ahead of the tariffs. So it’s actually higher than usual because of that. But in the first and second week of May it drops off dramatically.

I’ve heard the drop off described in different ways. But the most optimistic seems to be a reduction in imports of about 50% or a bit less. Ships to the west coast go and to the east coast through the canal. So it hits the west coast first. Then it shows up in Chicago a week or so later as rail and trucking freight drop off. Then on the east coast as ships don’t arrive there.

I was talking to one regional banker in the mid Atlantic who told me that after the first week or may there are simply no ships from China arriving. Whatever the precise specifics the point is that this is already locked in. The severe drop off has already happened but it’s all off set by weeks because the Pacific Ocean is big and ocean freight speed is relatively slow. And it has knock on effects in domestic shipping.

It will hit trucking hard but that’s still a couple weeks away. Even if you only have roughly a 50% drop off in volume that shows up not just as rising costs but shortages. And even Trump woke up tomorrow and called everything off you’d still have a significant period of shortages locked in. And obviously that’s not going to happen.

We will also almost certainly see a limited version of the supply chain snarls we say during the pandemic. There are reports of some containers simply sitting or being abandoned in ports. Also when there’s no product you start laying off truckers or independents do something else. So when the product comes back on line the system to move the product out of port doesn’t come back immediately.

The upshot is that we’ve already locked in a long hot imports summer regardless of what happens now.


There are local stories here in LA about truckers being laid off and the Porto of Long Beach already feeling the effects. That’s about to go into warp speed in the next week or so.

Someone must have told Trump this would happen. I assume he said (as he’s been reported to have said on a number of subjects) “fuck it.” He thinks America loves him so much they’re willing to sacrifice themselves for his genius and once other countries feel the pain they will bend to his will and eliminate tariffs and America will somehow become richer than ever. It never made sense but for some reason people voted for him anyway and the Republican party saw his popularity among about 40% of politically illiterate voters as a mandate to go along with it.

The markets felt the earthquake first but the tsunami is about to hit the real economy next. When you combine it with the assault on the federal government from Vought and Musk, and all the safety nets being dismantled, you are looking at an epic disaster coming at us.

Buckle up. As Marshall says, it’s going to be a long hot summer.
36 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Remember The Pandemic Supply Chain Problem? -- Digby (Original Post) erronis 13 hrs ago OP
Wow. An astonishing port picture. We can't shout "Incoming!" because nothing is coming in. Bernardo de La Paz 13 hrs ago #1
Portoptimizer shows some good data to watch - link included chowder66 12 hrs ago #2
20 categories of goods most exposed to price shocks: chia 12 hrs ago #3
+1 dalton99a 10 hrs ago #22
People are gonna find out how much we need is made outside the country. Dixiegrrrl 12 hrs ago #4
Not to be rude bdamomma 11 hrs ago #12
You just reminded me to complete a refill FirstLight 10 hrs ago #29
Very cogent. Bookmarking. Hekate 11 hrs ago #5
This will have horrific ripple effects from truck drivers to toy sellers. SunSeeker 11 hrs ago #6
The Felon said "there is going to be some pain." Buddyzbuddy 11 hrs ago #7
Of course, His Dotardness will not be at the receiving end of it. raccoon 11 hrs ago #11
Tell me about it. chowmama 11 hrs ago #14
I suspect we're all going to find out the hard way Buddyzbuddy 5 hrs ago #36
Kick. Fortune Magazine called it a "precipitous drop". bronxiteforever 11 hrs ago #8
Just wondering if they gave a percentage. "Precipitous" these days can mean anything from 10% to 99%. TheRickles 11 hrs ago #13
Read this very thread. 44% on top of 22% is precipitous. . . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz 10 hrs ago #16
Yes it is. Thanks. TheRickles 10 hrs ago #17
Here is the article bronxiteforever 10 hrs ago #18
Would be good to avoid getting DU members tracked. Good to learn to trim URLs Bernardo de La Paz 10 hrs ago #19
Actually "they" have every right to read everything on DU. Assume that they are. erronis 10 hrs ago #24
They have a right to read, but not to collect info & track. I assume they are doing so, but I have no facts on that. .nt Bernardo de La Paz 10 hrs ago #25
I've worked in the web collection business. Everything that is collected is stored and cataloged. erronis 10 hrs ago #26
There are no rules for ordinary usage and storage. Read corporations. But US govt can't track w/o warrant Bernardo de La Paz 10 hrs ago #28
I believe you're looking at this from a "comm" perspective - capturing communications traffic. erronis 10 hrs ago #32
Web scraping, sure. But tracking cookies IS comms and I think that is the kind of thing prohibited to govt. . . nt Bernardo de La Paz 10 hrs ago #33
But as far as what we post on DU (or elsewhere), just be careful the web scrapers can't access it. erronis 9 hrs ago #34
As to photos, one thing to do is to put it up on a screen at full resolution and use screen capture. Another way Bernardo de La Paz 10 hrs ago #27
Thanks for this. Joinfortmill 11 hrs ago #9
May it be thee nail in his coffin. spanone 11 hrs ago #10
Trump is an imbecile... GiqueCee 10 hrs ago #15
There will be hoarding, price gouging, and fighting in stores dalton99a 10 hrs ago #20
"It never made sense but for some reason people voted for him anyway and the Republican party saw his popularity sop 10 hrs ago #21
TSF's actions make perfect sense, if you look at his actions from the perspective that he is a ruskie agent. kraznov. SheltieLover 10 hrs ago #30
Tomorrow I'm placing orders through various places on the things... littlemissmartypants 10 hrs ago #23
Hoard, panic, then over the edge bucolic_frolic 10 hrs ago #31
At This Point It Is Guess Work DallasNE 8 hrs ago #35

Bernardo de La Paz

(54,951 posts)
1. Wow. An astonishing port picture. We can't shout "Incoming!" because nothing is coming in.
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 03:48 PM
13 hrs ago

145% tariff tax is not just a tax. It is a trade embargo.

chowder66

(10,454 posts)
2. Portoptimizer shows some good data to watch - link included
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 04:18 PM
12 hrs ago

snip....
For the week ending May 3, the number of freight vessels leaving China and headed to the Southern California ports, the main U.S. ports receiving Chinese freight and other Asian trade, is down 29% week-over-week, according to Port Optimizer, a tracking system for ships. Year-over-year, the data shows a 44% drop in vessels scheduled to arrive the week of May 4-May 10.

This data is updated on a daily basis based on the vessel manifests declaring the port destination. These vessels are either scheduled to leave Asia or are already on the water and headed to these ports.

Twelve vessels are scheduled to come in this week, down from 22 the week of April 20. Measured in shipping containers, a total of 62,568 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) are arriving the week of May 4-May 10, versus 120,608 TEUs as recently as the week of April 20-April 26.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/busiest-us-ports-see-big-drop-in-chinese-freight-vessel-traffic.html

https://volumes.portoptimizer.com

Dixiegrrrl

(32 posts)
4. People are gonna find out how much we need is made outside the country.
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 04:45 PM
12 hrs ago

Not just the groceries, but prescription and OTC medicines, critical medical supplies.
Let's hope the tariff issues are resolved before that idiot kills more people.

bdamomma

(68,097 posts)
12. Not to be rude
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 05:36 PM
11 hrs ago

with my response, the felon will add more dead Americans to his Covid count.

How much more or how many more???

SunSeeker

(55,536 posts)
6. This will have horrific ripple effects from truck drivers to toy sellers.
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 04:55 PM
11 hrs ago

We're marching to recession...maybe depression.

raccoon

(31,778 posts)
11. Of course, His Dotardness will not be at the receiving end of it.
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 05:34 PM
11 hrs ago

Maybe he was also referring to inflicting pain.

chowmama

(736 posts)
14. Tell me about it.
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 05:47 PM
11 hrs ago

I was in charge of supplies for a large veterinary practice during Covid and I still have that responsibility. That is going to pale in comparison to this.

I only hope karma gives Trusk and associates the need for general surgery over the next few months. For one thing, the sodalime necessary for a gas anesthesia machine to work is all manufactured in China. No anesthesia, no problem, right? All syringes. Sterile and non-sterile gloves, latex and nitrile, ditto.

I'm trying to stock up without having much permission to do so. And as prices rise, I suspect strongly my budget will not rise accordingly.

But as long as he gets to strut around and pretend he's a stable genius. No wonder Zelinsky was the only one to be greeted with applause at the Pope's funeral - he's the new leader of the free world. Not Trump.

Buddyzbuddy

(772 posts)
36. I suspect we're all going to find out the hard way
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 11:08 PM
5 hrs ago

just how much we depend on China for.
Buckle up and hold on tight.

bronxiteforever

(10,368 posts)
8. Kick. Fortune Magazine called it a "precipitous drop".
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 05:21 PM
11 hrs ago

The Port of LA is the nation’s largest port and is suffering a substantial drop in cargo vessels.

TheRickles

(2,708 posts)
13. Just wondering if they gave a percentage. "Precipitous" these days can mean anything from 10% to 99%.
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 05:47 PM
11 hrs ago

Bernardo de La Paz

(54,951 posts)
19. Would be good to avoid getting DU members tracked. Good to learn to trim URLs
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 06:02 PM
10 hrs ago

It would be a smart move to learn how to trim URLs so you aren't tracked everywhere. Especially in these autocratic tyrannical times. Anybody who clicks on that link is associated with you and you with them.

Assume DU is watched. They have no right to, but that doesn't stop them. Try trimming at the question mark.

erronis

(19,242 posts)
24. Actually "they" have every right to read everything on DU. Assume that they are.
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 06:14 PM
10 hrs ago

Remove any personal information and tracking on URLs (anything past the first ? ).

Don't give out any more information about yourself that you feel comfortable sharing on a neighborhood bulletin board. It will be scraped and fed into their huge DB.

For example, don't give any close physical address - use a neighborhood or region. Don't specify your actual age. Anything that can narrow their search, they will use.

Unfortunately, for posters who like to use photos and who are also, let's say politically active, be careful. The technology is good enough to tell exactly where you were when you took that photograph.

Bernardo de La Paz

(54,951 posts)
25. They have a right to read, but not to collect info & track. I assume they are doing so, but I have no facts on that. .nt
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 06:16 PM
10 hrs ago

erronis

(19,242 posts)
26. I've worked in the web collection business. Everything that is collected is stored and cataloged.
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 06:19 PM
10 hrs ago

And, as far as I know, there are no laws/rules that prohibit this. Of course, in our new wild-west lawless world, WTF about those stupid laws?

Bernardo de La Paz

(54,951 posts)
28. There are no rules for ordinary usage and storage. Read corporations. But US govt can't track w/o warrant
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 06:24 PM
10 hrs ago

I think the NSA is allowed to record everything crossing the border (which is all postings, practically speaking) but the government is forbidden from accessing that without a warrant.

But with Tulsi Gabbard, Mike "Signalgate" Waltz, and Ka$h Patel in charge I don't put anything past them.

Fact remains it is better to trim URLs, even if only to reduce clutter.

erronis

(19,242 posts)
32. I believe you're looking at this from a "comm" perspective - capturing communications traffic.
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 06:32 PM
10 hrs ago

What is happening at our level is just pure web scraping. Anyone can do it. I do it. Google and everyone else does it. So does the US government (and every other one that cares.)

DU is not paywalled and has no enforceable constraints on who is spidering the content.

Facebuck, NYT, etc. put up paywalls which "inhibit" access but you only need to look at the plethora of archival sites to realize these walls are easily breached.

Yes, looking at internet traffic at the ISP level (ATT, Verizon, etc.) may be constrained by the "laws" but those laws are only for normies.

Bernardo de La Paz

(54,951 posts)
33. Web scraping, sure. But tracking cookies IS comms and I think that is the kind of thing prohibited to govt. . . nt
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 06:37 PM
10 hrs ago

erronis

(19,242 posts)
34. But as far as what we post on DU (or elsewhere), just be careful the web scrapers can't access it.
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 06:49 PM
9 hrs ago

Thanks for this conversation!

Bernardo de La Paz

(54,951 posts)
27. As to photos, one thing to do is to put it up on a screen at full resolution and use screen capture. Another way
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 06:22 PM
10 hrs ago

Another way is to use GIMP which is a free and Free (open source) graphics image manipulation program. You can copy the original as image "selection" (cropping but not cropped) and that drops off all the geo-location data and all the date and camera data. There may or may not be some computer data attached; I haven't checked that aspect with an EXIF data inspector.

GiqueCee

(2,155 posts)
15. Trump is an imbecile...
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 05:49 PM
10 hrs ago

... but the infinitely worse fact that no one wants to say out loud, is that he is a fucking traitor. He's been in Putin's pocket from Day One, but even those who oppose him are too chickenshit to do anything about it.
Republicans have slit their own throats, all the while thinking that they'll rule over the ashes of whatever is left. C'mon, boys and girls; do you really think that Putin is going to let the kind of self-serving idiots that voted for, and continue to support, this malevolent monster, rule over ANYTHING? Get real. You're done.
Vladimir has his own worries, a great many of which are potentially fatal. You can bet that he avoids walking near open windows. But he's getting his lifelong wish: Bringing America to its knees, with a little help from his buddies, the Republicans, may they all roast in Hell.
He'll have to be dealt with, but the GOP can NEVER be forgiven for their obscene treachery. Not ever.

sop

(13,842 posts)
21. "It never made sense but for some reason people voted for him anyway and the Republican party saw his popularity
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 06:05 PM
10 hrs ago

among about 40% of politically illiterate voters as a mandate to go along with it." Nothing Trump does makes any sense. He's fucking insane and Republicans know it, yet they go along with his insanity and allow him to destroy the country. I just don't get it.

SheltieLover

(66,955 posts)
30. TSF's actions make perfect sense, if you look at his actions from the perspective that he is a ruskie agent. kraznov.
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 06:31 PM
10 hrs ago

America is not "first" other than as a target to destroy to please his boss, pootin.

Nancy knew. Remember "All roads lead to russia with *rump"?

littlemissmartypants

(27,307 posts)
23. Tomorrow I'm placing orders through various places on the things...
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 06:12 PM
10 hrs ago

I use on a regular basis that it turns out are all imported. It's a wide variety of things. The origin of some surprised me. I won't be shopping for a long while after that. I hope that I can conserve and can make things last. I'm certainly going to try.

Most folks don't have a clue what's about to happen. I feel bad for the small businesses that are going to suffer if not completely disappear. The shopping addicts need to buckle up.

We're all going to go through some things, as the saying goes.

Of course, many already unfortunate people (like the homeless, hungry, single women HOH and children) are already and always suffering.

We are going to see huge tests on our humanity. If you are able, please consider donating to your local food pantry or start a Free Store* in your neighborhood.

You can easily make a free sign and share things that you no longer need with anyone.

I've been setting things out like that at the road that runs in front of my house for years. Once, I watched a petite senior woman wrestling to get a space heater in her car until I went out and helped her. Who knows, you might meet neighbors and make friends? If you dare.

Thanks so much for sharing this, erronis.

❤️pants

*Free Store information:

●How to start a free store in your community
https://www.shareable.net/how-to-start-a-free-store-in-your-community/
●"...freestanding alt-markets which reclaimed public space and offered solace & resources to neighborhoods..."
https://thefreestoreproject.com/

bucolic_frolic

(49,994 posts)
31. Hoard, panic, then over the edge
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 06:32 PM
10 hrs ago

Retailers, importers, wholesalers, distributors will be uncertain and reluctant about putting up more money to import when demand is uncertain, and satiated in the short term. Perhaps by fall the most critical goods will be reordered. But much longer than that for slow-moving merchandise, or expensive merchandise.

DallasNE

(7,763 posts)
35. At This Point It Is Guess Work
Sun Apr 27, 2025, 08:35 PM
8 hrs ago

I haven't seen data on what the tariff rate currently in effect is by country nor the dollar volume by country. Also, what are the many tariff exceptions? Trump just isn't making the data available where reliable estimates can be had. Even with China and its 134% tariff, there are exceptions.

But there is no question, the China tariffs by themselves will cause severe supply chain issues. Some effects will be felt even though there has been a 90-day delay in the tariffs. For instance, Subaru, a Japanese company, makes cars that it ships to Canada that are made in Indiana. They have announced that they will be shipping cars made in Japan to Canada to bypass the tariff. They will continue to make cars in Indiana for sale in America, but cut out production of cars to be shipped from America to other countries, where they face tariffs. Will other car makers follow this model? I would expect so, meaning the tariffs are backfiring. So much for hairbrained ideas.

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