These things pop up out of nowhere for the first scare of the year. I hope it moves on in right away before it gets a chance to build up, but the Gulf water is warm, so it might want to stay in that water for awhile, getting stronger the whole time. Hope there's no loss of life and minimal damage to property.

All those storms dumping all that rain! Well, it is the Age of Aquarius. The water bearer is going to pour it out all over us. And don't forget the ice caps melting. I wonder how long it will be before those of us living on the coastline will have to relocate.

Chances up to 30% this morning

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#93L

As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025...
East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily south of the center. This system is forecast to move
westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Tuesday night,
eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of
this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
additional development if the system remains offshore, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves across the
northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of
this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Active Storms | Marine Forecasts

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

I'd better get prepared. I already have plenty of water, candles, and canned goods. Might need to get some cat food. That's the most important thing!

An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
disturbance is forecast to move westward across Florida during the
next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday.
Environmental conditions appear favorable and some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the northeastern and north-central
portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The most recent NOAA map showed the area with a 40% chance of strengthening within 7 days.

at most a tropical storm
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6Ov32gNPTKAa7-seHTl8Xw

Early in the season, but still . . .