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Peacetrain

(24,215 posts)
Sat Aug 23, 2025, 01:53 PM Saturday

Political Pollsters Are Trying to Save Money by Polling AI Instead of Real People, and It's Going About as Well as You'd

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/political-pollsters-are-trying-to-save-money-by-polling-ai-instead-of-real-people-and-it-s-going-about-as-well-as-you-d-expect/ar-AA1L4WUo

"As if the institution of political polling weren't already fraught enough, pollsters are now surveying AI instead of real people to cut costs and save time.

As new research demonstrates, AI is clearly not up to the job — but that probably won't stop any firms who've bought in to continue doing so."

Is anyone surprised by this???
7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Political Pollsters Are Trying to Save Money by Polling AI Instead of Real People, and It's Going About as Well as You'd (Original Post) Peacetrain Saturday OP
If you gave an AI a shit-ton of real (and recent) polling data, it could do a good job of aggregating it and coming up AZJonnie Saturday #1
I don't think that's even true Diraven Saturday #4
If you purposefully teach an LLM all the rules of statistics and labeled all the numbers you gave it to process properly AZJonnie Saturday #6
Nope Metaphorical Saturday #7
"Google And Pollster Scott Rasmussen Will Use AI To Survey Americans' Political Views" Wiz Imp Saturday #2
AI is only as good as.... TnDem Saturday #3
Here's why this is so dangerous Diraven Saturday #5

AZJonnie

(1,233 posts)
1. If you gave an AI a shit-ton of real (and recent) polling data, it could do a good job of aggregating it and coming up
Sat Aug 23, 2025, 02:18 PM
Saturday

with some reasonably accurate insights for you (in fact I'm certain it's already used that way), but using it in this way, where AI is taking the poll? That seems pretty silly.

At least, for now

Hopefully this type of thing is just for research purposes and nobody plans on releasing them publicly, unless it's made very clear to any reader that the results are completely made up by AI. With a clear disclaimer of 'for entertainment purposes only'.

Diraven

(1,515 posts)
4. I don't think that's even true
Sat Aug 23, 2025, 04:01 PM
Saturday

LLM isn't even good at counting. It would suck at statistics.

AZJonnie

(1,233 posts)
6. If you purposefully teach an LLM all the rules of statistics and labeled all the numbers you gave it to process properly
Sat Aug 23, 2025, 05:10 PM
Saturday

It would perform the calculations flawlessly. I don't where you get the idea that computers don't 'count' well. In a very pertinent sense, 'counting' is literally 'all a computer does'

Metaphorical

(2,507 posts)
7. Nope
Sat Aug 23, 2025, 07:27 PM
Saturday

As someone who is immersed in AI systems daily, large language models really do suck at math. They first have to recognize that they are in a mathematical context, then they typically OFFLOAD those computations to an external processor, because the way that latent spaces work, they are simply not well-optimized for arithmetic. Now, higher order symbolic mathematics? Yeah, they actually do pretty well with that, because those are essentially manipulation of blocks of symbols (most of which have been tokenized) and pattern matching. However, anyone using LLMs for statistical work is essentially getting the benefit of a lot of back-end python code that was custom written by humans to take those computations out of the equation.

Wiz Imp

(6,655 posts)
2. "Google And Pollster Scott Rasmussen Will Use AI To Survey Americans' Political Views"
Sat Aug 23, 2025, 03:33 PM
Saturday
https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardnieva/2025/08/14/inside-googles-plan-to-use-ai-to-survey-americans-on-their-political-views/

A collaboration between the tech giant and a polling nonprofit will gather five to 10 people each from every congressional district to answer questions about the nation’s most pressing issues. If it works, it could upend the fraught world of political polling.

Earlier this year, Scott Rasmussen, the longtime pollster and political commentator, traveled to Bowling Green, Kentucky, known for its Corvette assembly plant and for being the hometown of Fruit of the Loom. After he toured the city, about 65 miles north of Nashville, he returned home with a novel idea: use AI to transform polling, a notoriously fickle and imprecise discipline that he had studied for decades. To pursue the project, he teamed up with an unlikely partner — Google.

Rasmussen had visited Bowling Green to check out the work of Jigsaw, a think tank inside Google that tackles big societal challenges like online extremism. At the time, it was working with the local government in the Kentucky city and surrounding county on an experiment aimed at jumpstarting civic engagement. Jigsaw asked residents to answer questions about the issues they cared most about, from the potential arrival of a Dave & Buster’s to the debate over marijuana legalization. From there, it would use a Google AI tool called Sensemaker, built from its language model Gemini, to analyze the answers and separate the residents’ disagreements from where they had common ground.

Rasmussen told Forbes he was stunned by the results and said he saw in them an opportunity to try and repair our balkanized political discourse. Why not survey the entire country?
 

TnDem

(1,390 posts)
3. AI is only as good as....
Sat Aug 23, 2025, 03:37 PM
Saturday

The people that program it...If the programmers have a right wing spin, it will devolve with articulate opinions from the right...And so on.

Diraven

(1,515 posts)
5. Here's why this is so dangerous
Sat Aug 23, 2025, 04:06 PM
Saturday

The #1 thing the AI companies are working on now is training their models to convincingly promote lies and propaganda. Because there is enormous money to be made selling AI with that kind of capability to oppressive governments and corporations.

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