polls are too prone to manipulation, I tend to ignore them.

I believe that Krasnov's popularity is in the low 30's. He lost his young and Hispanic voters for sure.

in the manipulation is of course to give credibility to the political lies, like that big lie, Americans are/have become more conservative.

And have been since W. But once in awhile, the voters overwhelm the cheating.

Trump stole the election in 2016 by using Putin's troll farms, Russian tax dollars and rigging social media sites. Then he cheated again in 2024 using the computerized vote counts on all the swing states. Musk helped with that thru buying Twitter and rigging counts.

It's much more difficult for each individual Republicon to rig each of their state's vote counts. Though the GOP tries anyway. Trump is not funding the rigging in each and every state election. It's easier to just rig one nationwide election. The rigged opinion polls are then used as cover for the rigged vote counts. But the rigged opinion polls in states are useless because of the difficulty of rigging each and every state's voting systems.

So yeah, the polls are useless at the state level because GOP pollsters are still overweighting GOP opinions but the actual vote count is Not rigged to reflect the pollster's bias like they are in nationwide votes.

Their only hope (and they thought it was plausible) was that voters also hated Democrats. The margins we're seeing now suggest that that life raft sprung a leak as well.

Which made me wonder, “Who then were the eight million people protesting in the streets of our nation??”

Bigger than even 2018.

The Virginia AG shows that anyone can beat a MAGA Republican right now. You're going to see some shocks in the US Senate with Red State incumbents losing to underdog Dems. You could see the US Senate flip dramatically, the House is a given. But the US Senate could end up like 56-44 in favor of Dems.

I believe there are enough Democrats and independent voters to take many races, when the Chump-lovers decide they don't care enough to participate. Even many of the so-called "red" counties will go purple or blue when the R's stay home. We've seen this in Pennsylvania where the party registration is roughly 50%R/50%D but the largest group are unaffiliated voters. It's the "indies" that make the difference.

In the past 6 months or so, Chump has alarmed and pissed off so many of his own voters that it's not surprising when they decided to skip voting this time.

it usually means that they had the model wrong. They made an assumption that didn't turn out. There was a group of voters that showed up that were under estimated. Is it the under 30 crowd? Interested to find out when the analyze the results.

i look forward to the numbers, too. i think the magats sat it out.

the maga aren't that thrilled with their orange stain.

Kids under 30 never answer a call from an unknown number. And there are ever less actual landlines left, let alone how few aren't just set to silent voicemail or a silent answering machine. The pollsters now try text messaging. I actually did a poll seemingly supporting Cuomo to help his target his lies better. If a survey catches me I will do it, but that is due to my own curiosity doubled by having studied the subject of Survey Sampling.

worried about getting more junk texts...

by almost 50points! The Republican, James Gardner spent over $350 k of his own money and campaigned aggressively throughout the city but only managed to get 24% of the vote. Guess he shouldn’t have said during his debate with Ryan, that he’d welcome the orange felon’s troops into the city. What a dunce.

higher turnout among younger voters. That would be my guess.

Republicans had been making gains for years by winning small town / small offices in kind of a bottom-up strategy of control. I’m curious if Democrats have been able to break that trend - if Trump hasn’t already broken it for us. Is there a bigger change coming? Is America finally sick of all the lying, cheating, abusing while having their livelihoods and retirements and healthcare stolen beneath them by the GOP?

So yeah, I'd say rural America is shifting too.

What was important about last night besides electing qualified Dems was to show the donors what is possible for 2026. We need to build the largest war chest in mid term history and take the country back.

Thank friggin goodness.

They said the town was literally studied as a single party community by academics and they broke from the GOP after 175 years. I am guessing the time frame to be the entire duration of the GOP, they didn't say the time frame.

The media seems to think tight races are more interesting/exciting. IMO, blowouts are much more impressive.

to get Sylvester Turner replaced in Congress.

Both candidates in the runoff are good -- Christian Menefee
and Amanda Edwards.

But I would have liked a result this time.

Others were pretty good, especially in VA where only Traflagar was way off. In NJ Atlas, Emerson, and Suffolk have a lot to look at for why they blew it....but Zogby and YouGov did very well.

63.8 to 36.2 right now.

This is why I like Newsom, he plays hard ball, he plays to win.

A 30 point spread, it was a joke thinking this possibly wouldn't pass. It was destined to be a land slide from the start.

#rump will convince them they need to crank the MAGA up to 11.

...when the whole MAGA card house comes tumbling down!

I got polled on my cell phone for the Virginia election and responded that I was voting for all the Dems. I've been a VA resident for 2 years.

Polls can oversample certain demographics and undersample others. Younger liberals and some minorities might be more transient and not have held residency and voter registration long enough to be reached by pollsters.

Kamala won.
*45/47 was facing consequences for felonies
Muskrat wanted lots of data for his ai
Match made in Hell
Muskrat stole the election for *45/47 in exchange for our data.
Will bet money on it.
Need to find out how to counter a repeat.

election deniers are dangerous. (and if you want concrete example - you can visit my part of the country)
MAGA-loons - clawing at the fabric ...

in which polling had him winning by at least (and probably greater) margin than actual results. So, that one - not a surprise.

It makes it far easier to actually contemplate events and think with your own brain-power, rather than let the corporations and gazillionaires continue to bloviate and dictate the storyline.

With 1,000 more interviews of racists in diners in small town rural America.

Several news stations were reporting a large difference between the number of women who voted vs the number of men.

It was so heartening to me to see this information. I've been fighting for equal opportunity all of my life.

I hate him & he can't die soon enough. And I will party hearty that day!

Representatives are especially vulnerable since their terms are only two years long, & a lot of people might think a vote for the dems or even just not voting would be a way to put some brakes on this out of control administration. We might have a shot at the senate, too, if the repubs don't pull their collective head out of Trump's orange ass.

If 2026 is like this Tuesday, all the Gerrymandering won't matter and you're going to install Dems into districts you rigged to be reliably red. Now those reliably red districts will have an incumbent Dem in 2028. Dems are going to flip both houses in 2026 and it will be a massive flip.

And that's hard. The hardest thing in polling is figuring out the likely voter model. They underestimated how motivated we are the hamstring the TFG.