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applegrove

(129,257 posts)
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 02:58 PM Thursday

Pollsters Didn't See the Blue Wave Coming

Pollsters Didn’t See the Blue Wave Coming

November 5, 2025 at 8:57 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 127 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2025/11/05/pollsters-didnt-see-the-blue-wave-coming/


“Once the votes were tallied, Republican candidates weren’t the only ones who fell short in Tuesday’s elections. The pollsters had a bad night, too,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“As a group, firms that publicly release their polls failed to detect the wave that gave a landslide win to Democrats in New Jersey, where their candidate for governor won by 13 points.”
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Pollsters Didn't See the Blue Wave Coming (Original Post) applegrove Thursday OP
Pollsters are as useful as "journalists" these days... Moostache Thursday #1
May it continue to increase. Ocelot II Thursday #2
I didn't see it coming either. I'd hoped and crossed my fingers and wished for the best Torchlight Thursday #3
Deaf, Dumb, and Blind. Joinfortmill Thursday #4
Hopefully, this sustains. NorthStarStCentrist Thursday #5
Yes that crack pollster Karl Rove thought pubs would win NJ gov race. yellowcanine Thursday #6
They can all poll my finger. miyazaki Thursday #7
Many of the pols had most races being close mwmisses4289 Thursday #8
And the trolls were having a field day. Kingofalldems Thursday #9
actually some pollsters did see this coming dsc Thursday #10

Moostache

(10,915 posts)
1. Pollsters are as useful as "journalists" these days...
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 03:00 PM
Thursday

Neither have acquitted themselves well since that motherfucking escalator fiasco 10 years ago. They have coated themselves in enough shame to last 1,000 years in just that one decade.

Torchlight

(6,117 posts)
3. I didn't see it coming either. I'd hoped and crossed my fingers and wished for the best
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 03:03 PM
Thursday

but like lower-case thoughts and prayers, that does little if anything. Thinking the math would remain static and the result on par, I was probably more surprised than even any candidate who lost in an upset.

It does bode well for tomorrow's tomorrow, though.

yellowcanine

(36,662 posts)
6. Yes that crack pollster Karl Rove thought pubs would win NJ gov race.
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 03:39 PM
Thursday

He had it all figured out on his slide rule based on the Latino vote in 2024.

mwmisses4289

(2,751 posts)
8. Many of the pols had most races being close
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 03:41 PM
Thursday

3-5 points. So for pollsters the shock is not the polls themselves, but how far off they were.

dsc

(53,254 posts)
10. actually some pollsters did see this coming
Thu Nov 6, 2025, 03:58 PM
Thursday

PPP for example has been saying for weeks to ignore reports of trouble in New Jersey. They also forecast Mamdani winning both the primary and the general.

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