He only lost to Deb Fisher by 7% last year and in a blue wave year it’s very possible he could take down silver spoon billionaire Pete Ricketts.

If it is a once in 100 years situation they can pick up almost all of the senate seats up for election.

Dems will defend all 13 with ease. Dems will flip 5 or 6 with ease and there will be a few more surprises. 2026 is going to be a blood bath for Republicans, they're going to lose seats they thought were 100% safe all across the country.

Virginia AG is a telling data point. An incumbent MAGA lost to a flawed Dem who many on both sides were calling to drop out of the race. Polls were within the margin of error and Jones ended up winning by 6 points.

Running in Kentucky for Mitch McConnell seat. They have proven Dem can win statewide.

just a hunch?

I think these 4 are the most likely to flip to the Dems. A lot can happen in a year, but there is a blue wave forming.

I am doubtful TX, NE, or SC will flip.

Personally, I'd love see Lindsey Graham and Susan Collins voted out more then almost all others.

that inexperienced, divisive guy with the horrible baggage. They seem to be hellbent on attempting to make that primary ugly.

But I'm not looking forward to the divisiveness he clearly wants to bring.

https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26#google_vignette

They still show Democrats with just a 34.4% chance of taking the Senate, but it is trending in the right direction.

https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26#google_vignette

There are 22 Republican seats up for election. There are currently 9 where Democrats chances are 10% or higher

North Carolina 74.5%
Maine 63.1%
Ohio 40.4%
Alaska 27%
Texas 25.7%
Iowa 23.3%
Florida 18.2%
Kansas 14.1%
Nebraska 12.5%

Our system of government is design to gift the minority with tyrannical rule. 2 per state Senate and gerrymandering guarantee it. The freedom loving majority will have to be very determined or very lucky in order to get around these fundamental problems of our "representative" democracy.