General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy Musk will never get his trillion $
These are the goals he must meet;
Forget Tesla's terribly overinflated stock with a price to earnings at 400x.
Here are some links about Tesla's income.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/net-income
https://www.alphaquery.com/stock/TSLA/earnings-history
Tesla income is actually declining. The Cybertruck is one of the biggest failures in car history, Tesla AI is a poor wannabe, and his driverless robotaxi is another promise that will take forever to get to market, if it ever does (he promissed driverless cars by 2020).
Tesla's best year was profits of $ 15 billion, now down to under $10. So with a car brand that is being shunned globally, and products that may never reach market. Tesla has to grow it's sales over 40x for Musk to earn this ridiculous pay out.
Tesla's best year was under 2 million cars sold worldwide. Does anybody see them reaching sales of automakers like Toyota or Honda?
For Tesla to reach the Market Cap in the goals it's current stock price of around $400 would have to reach almost $2000.
Tesla currently has a Price to Earnings ratio of over 300. In comparison, almost all other car makers have a PE of around 10. Nvidia, the AI Chip maker and darling of the stock market has one of around 50. So Tesla's stock price is predicated that it will grow 6 times more than Nvidia, who is actually making something people are buying.
All this money is predicated on a stock price that is based on a cult of personality and the foolishness of the investor class. The real numbers for Tesla income show a different picture.
Given Musk's track record of failed promises, empty concepts and actual failures. I don't see where Tesla pays him a trillion $.
*This is just a general overall view and not a in depth analysis. So my numbers could be off somewhat, but not enough to change my conclusions.
Historic NY
(39,470 posts)he's done.
Historic NY
(39,470 posts)edhopper
(36,835 posts)that Tesla exponential growth is not in the future.
NJCher
(41,968 posts)reading articles about China's EVs. Musk doesn't stand a chance in the world long term.
AltairIV
(989 posts)hatrack
(63,959 posts)I'd be amazed if the company is even around in ten years.
Polybius
(21,156 posts)Bookmark this.
edhopper
(36,835 posts)Polybius
(21,156 posts)I hope we're both still on DU in 10 years to see who's right. I will gladly admit it if you are.
edhopper
(36,835 posts)But we will know in 5 years which way the company is going.
I am curious to see what the coming AI stock crash does to Tesla stock.
Polybius
(21,156 posts)I think Musk has most of his AI stuff in X.AI, so I don't know if it will effect Tesla much.
Bengus81
(9,572 posts)Just for shits and giggles...........
Polybius
(21,156 posts)The Model Y holds the title of the best-selling car globally, and its performance is quite satisfactory (even if Musk can be overly optimistic at times).
Tesla is set to keep growing and maintain its position as the leading company in electric vehicles. For years, there have been predictions of their downfall or obscurity.
edhopper
(36,835 posts)for 3 years and down this year. Where is the growth?
Yes, Teslas are still selling well, especially in the U.S., where they maintain a dominant market share despite some recent sales declines. The Model Y and Model 3 are extremely popular, frequently outselling many other vehicles. However, Tesla's sales performance is mixed globally, with strong recent U.S. sales due to expiring tax credits but weaker performance in regions like Europe and China due to increased competition.
U.S. market performance
Tesla held a 48.5% share of the U.S. EV market in Q2 2025, selling nearly 144,000 vehicles, far more than any other manufacturer.
The Model Y and Model 3 have been best-sellers, combining to sell more units than the next eight best-selling EVs combined.
While some studies indicate a decrease in sales in certain Democratic-leaning areas of the U.S. due to negative perceptions of the CEO, Tesla's overall sales still show a strong market position.
edhopper
(36,835 posts)because Trump ended the EV tax credit.
Let's see what the next 2 quarters look like.
Read something that isn't a Tesla PR release.
https://www.theverge.com/news/790046/tesla-q3-2025-sales-production-delivery
And it's declining sales.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/tesla_inc_tsla_total_deliveries_quarterly
EdmondDantes_
(1,142 posts)That's not sustainable growth. In the first half of the year their sales were down 24% from 2024. In the 3rd quarter, they were up 7%, but that's the end of the tax credit.
Musk has been selling his faulty full self driving software for years without delivering on it and they are still less safe than others because they refuse to use lidar.
Bluestocking
(392 posts)Before Musk came out as a Nazi. It is currently number 4 in 2025 so far.
Shermann
(8,985 posts)His fortunes are tied to that of his companies. But, if he were able to divest and then reinvest that 500 billion in the S&P 500, he could realistically get there in 10 years just sitting on the couch. Billionaires never seem to retire so being in his mid 50's I wouldn't count him out.
edhopper
(36,835 posts)which is all tied to Tesla's over inflated stock price, BTW
It's the pay Tesla says he will get if they grow to 10 x their current size.
The negotiations will now begin where these incentives will be continually reduced until Musk can eventually reach them without growing Tesla at all.
JMCKUSICK
(4,575 posts)Nice to get some context to these numbers.
popsdenver
(980 posts)along with others I have spoken to about Tesla.......are their drivers. We used to all agree that BMW drivers were BY FAR the #1 most inconsiderate, aggressive, and arrogant drivers on the roads......However, we have agreed that we are definitely seeing Tesla drivers challenging that #1 spot, there are just less of them......
Bluestocking
(392 posts)think about the type of person who would still drive a Tesla.
littlemissmartypants
(30,882 posts)It's bad enough driving in New Hanover County. It's a place where every day on average there are around a half dozen serious car accidents.
Biking fatalities and car crashes and just general driver insanity land it statically in the top five most dangerous places to drive in the state of NC with a consistent pattern of high collision rates.
Interstate 40 is like a race track. The speed limit is 70 mph but most drivers do 80-85 and it's so congested everyone is forced to keep pace or get run over. I've been harassed and forced to move many times by aggressive drivers.
Almost every single one in a Tesla sedan. Once they pass, if they can race ahead, they will floor it. Most likely just to prove a point. Always young white guy drivers. Clearly assh*les.
popsdenver
(980 posts)the Denver Metro Area..........it is getting insane around here.......My two grandkids are banned from driving on any Interstate or Highway around Denver..........
And the winter with snow is fast coming on.......I can hardly wait........
Seems this is the least of worries...........Screwing with ATC is much much more frightening.........
Attilatheblond
(7,781 posts)William Seger
(12,043 posts)Unlike cars that use more sophisticated technology, it relies on visual recognition from cameras, which is not reliable when visibility is not. I predict this will catch up with them:
ToxMarz
(2,604 posts)But he's already received much of what he wanted in public perception. He's all about smoke and mirrors. He has been awarded a trillion dollar pay package. No one will ever forget that and he can always tout that, regardless of whether he collects. It's like Trumps fake Time magazine covers and fake FIFA Peace Prizes.
Mblaze
(877 posts)That I have been seeing videos of on Youtube. They use a new battery that is made from aluminum rather than lithium. They are claiming a 500 mile range and that the battery "will outlast the car" which could be a good thing or a bad thing 😀. They are planning to sell it for $10,200+ globally which probably translates to $20,000 in the US. That is a very reasonable cost if the car works and actually gets produced.
Then they would just have to overcome Elon loathing.
edhopper
(36,835 posts)Mblaze
(877 posts)flvegan
(65,476 posts)It's a shit car brand with a shit Dollar Store Hitler at the helm. For reasons unknown to me, the Stans will continue to funnel money to someone who literally tossed a couple sieg heils on live tv, propping up his baseless lies (derp, we's gunna have that kickass new roadster on April 1st, derp dee dee derp...again) and rewarding his fascist bullshit.
Release the Epstein files!
flashman13
(1,755 posts)Fil1957
(372 posts)technology has fallen behind, and nowadays its cars are rather dull and stodgy compared to others.
edhopper
(36,835 posts)for over 7 years.
2018
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2025

edhopper
(36,835 posts)in decades. He built a plant at the cost of $2 to $3 billion that could produce over 250,000 trucks a year.
To date they have sold 16,000, with sales declining and owners finding they can't even trade them in. It will be gone within a year or two.
But they expect him to grow the company 10 fold?!?