Rand voted No.

With Rand the 40 must be:
38 of 47 45 Dems
Rand Paul
Bernie Sanders

I don't know why, but that feels a lot worse than the difference of one vote should.

There are 53 Republicans. Rand voted No. Counting Cornyn, 52 will vote Yes. 8 Dems will also vote Yes. That's the 60.

But the little fucker will fold after he gets what he wants.

Rand was always a No. In fact, he voted No the last time too.

It was unclear to me if Thune just wanted promises of eight Democratic yes on cloture only, or on the minibus package, extension to Jan 30, and whatever other amendments are in his "deal."

In any case, there is no guarantee he'll hold together the Senate Republican conference.

This is the filibuster. The next vote will just require 50.

To break a filibuster and get out of closure, 60 is needed. Once it's broken, the next vote will take 50 votes to pass.

This year, it's hard to know when you're double-thinking enough.

Before Cornyn arrives, can any of those 8 Dems change their minds and vote No?

It's almost certain to achieve that.

51 voted Yes. One is on his way (John Cornyn) and will vote Yes. Rand Paul voted No. 8 Democrats voted Yes. That's the 60.

It's over.

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/floor_activity_pail.htm