General Discussion

Ninga

(8,968 posts) Mon Nov 10, 2025, 01:14 PM Monday

It's complicated. Please read the link- vote to end shut down analysis. It's not a cut and dried foregone conclusion.

https://www.electoral-vote.com/

(More at the link)
“You Got to Know When to Hold 'Em, Know When to Fold 'Em
When you're playing poker, and you're up a good bit, you have a decision to make. You can keep going, and hope that your good fortune and/or good play continue. Or you can call it a night, which means you won't be winning any more money, but you will also preserve the gains you've already made.

Late last night, the Senate had a "breakthrough" and managed to come up with a bill that can get 60 votes for cloture. That first procedural vote was already held, and succeeded 60-40. Here are the main provisions of the agreement:

Government funding, at current levels, through January 30.

Most federal workers (including 4,000 of them who were fired) will be able to return to their jobs and will be paid. Trump cannot fire anyone prior to January 30.
- Snip-
Funding for military construction, the Department of Veterans Affairs, the FDA, the Department of Agriculture through September of next year. SNAP is administered by the latter department, and so people who need the program would not be at risk of being cut off for the next 10 months.

Protections for the Government Accountability Office (GAO), which keeps an eye on presidents and how they spend the government's money.

The Senate will hold a vote on ACA subsidies at some point in November or December.
Of course, the bill must work its way through the remaining Senate votes, then it must be passed by the House, then it must be signed by Donald Trump. The first of those three things is very likely to happen. The other two, you never know.

Now, let's talk about the politics of the deal. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) crossed the aisle, as he has done on all the other budget bills, to vote with the Democrats. So, we ended up with 52R + 7D + 1I for the bill and 38D + 1R + 1I against. Here is a list of the eight members of the Senate Democratic Caucus who voted for the deal, and why their votes are not surprising:”
-snip-

11 replies

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Highlight:

It's complicated. Please read the link- vote to end shut down analysis. It's not a cut and dried foregone conclusion. (Original Post) Ninga Monday OP

It is and will be seen as capitulation by progressive democrats lapfog_1 Monday #1

I respectfully disagree. This deal expires in 90 Ninga Monday #2

Respectfully, hamsterjill Monday #7

How was it a winning hand? EdmondDantes_ Monday #4

The fail safe is if they don't come to terms in January Ninga Monday #5

People don't like to read. I would appreciate Ninga Monday #3

Sorry, I don't have time to read now.. Cha Monday #6

Thanks Cha....I appreciate it. Ninga Monday #8

I have read it and others like it, I think it is bullshit. We folded and the ACA. Demsrule86 Tuesday #11

Mahalo, Ninja... I read your Snips here... Cha Tuesday #9

I dont agree. It is a betrayal. I'm with indivisablle. Primaries are the answer. Demsrule86 Tuesday #10

lapfog_1

(31,423 posts)

1. It is and will be seen as capitulation by progressive democrats

Reply to Ninga (Original post)

Mon Nov 10, 2025, 01:41 PM

Monday

We just had to most impressive turnout in an off year election in the history of the USA ( well, recent history ).
We swept the table... turned close elections into laughs and even elected Democrats in some very Red districts ( Bucks County PA for example ).

And I don't give a shit about holding them and/or folding them.

We just folded with a winning hand... yeah, a lot of people are going to bitch and moan about flying to relatives over the holidays, SNAP recipients would have to food bank it for a while... but turning the public opinion against Trump to the point that the midterms were going to go D DESPITE THE CHEATING, gave us all hope. Sacrifice was needed to win.

Now the base is back to "fuck this shit" and the midterms look a lot better for the evil fucks on the other side.

I have played chess at the grandmaster level and I have played poker at the highest tournament level... we just folded a winning hand and pushed a pawn that gives the opponent time to move out of a potential checkmate leaving them in a superior tactical advantage.

Last comment... Why even bother shutting down the government? Why try to even preserve funding for 3 months or 10 months... The more they cut and hurt people ( many of victims are MAGA ) the more powerful we become.

Ninga

(8,968 posts)

2. I respectfully disagree. This deal expires in 90

Reply to lapfog_1 (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 10, 2025, 02:34 PM

Monday

days. 90 days is a long time in politics. 90 days from now is 90 days closer to the midterm 2026 election. If GOP reneges on the deal and does not extend the ACA subsidies - the government will be shut down again. Dems will own the narrative in the winter and spring.
There is a small chance GOP will agree in January to the subsidies- but if now, shutdown once again.

hamsterjill

(16,792 posts)

7. Respectfully,

Reply to Ninga (Reply #2)

Mon Nov 10, 2025, 04:53 PM

Monday

Dems haven't "owned the narrative" in longer than I can even remember. Unless something quite significant changes with their approach toward voters, another shutdown is just going to now be "oh, that again" with everyone thinking that Dems would cave yet another time.

I have no desire to argue. But I don't think there is anything positive about last night. I'm sorry. I just don't. It was a big mistake.

EdmondDantes_

(1,142 posts)

4. How was it a winning hand?

Reply to lapfog_1 (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 10, 2025, 02:55 PM

Monday

We don't have a majority in either house of Congress and the elections this year don't do anything about that. Hard to have a winning hand when in the minority.