General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSpaceX going public...this should be mandatory reading for everyone with a 401K.
Is the financial world so desperate to create the world's first trillionaire that they would be willing to rob everyone's 401K to achieve that goal? It appears so.
https://www.rawstory.com/elon-musk-2676979515/
Lovie777
(23,925 posts)rampartd
(5,207 posts)that leaves trump, musk, xi, putin, left in the monopoly game.
who ends up owning the solar system? and who trashes the board and throws the pieces at the fireplace?
bucolic_frolic
(56,014 posts)No one needs this.
muriel_volestrangler
(106,678 posts)For some time (this shows it was some time during 2025), Broadcom has had a significantly higher market capitalization than Tesla. So Tesla ought to have been disregarded in a definition of "the seven", but people didn't (because they didn't want to point out Musk was not handling Tesla well?). It looks like Meta has recently dropped below Tesla (not surprised - Facebook etc. are vulnerable to going out of fashion, compared to TikTok or whatever comes next). But "SpaceX", whose valuation largely rests on unrealistic expectations for xAI succeeding) has no justification for being more "magnificent" than Broadcom.
Happy Hoosier
(9,650 posts)The IPO MAY not affect the S&P 500 for now... The SP500 requires 6 months of trading before getting on the index. The NASDAQ lifted that rule, so I need to see if any of my funds are tied to that index (I don't think so.... I do have some tech heavy funds, but I think they are tied to tech stocks in the SP500.
I'm trying not to think too emotionally here. I think a biggish correction is coming, but when? With my luck, I move to cash now and the market goes up 25% before it corrects 20%.
GreatGazoo
(4,741 posts)during this but QQQ (passive) seems the most vulnerable due to the NASDAQ "15-day" thing. Invesco (QQQ) should change their rules to avoid this forced buy but little chance of that now. My post #5 links to better analysis and much lower $$ numbers for how this plays out.
I like MO and GLDM because nicotine and shiny rocks have nothing to do with scammy tech Ponzi schemes but I hold index funds because they have always been the best.
Happy Hoosier
(9,650 posts)That vast majority of my money in my 401K is in VTSAX (Vanguard Total Market). The Space-X IPO will definitely hit that. I need to see if my 401K has an S&P500 fund. I have about 20% in international.
GreatGazoo
(4,741 posts)Uncharted water but I think timing is key. Funds that have longer windows during which to rebalance can likely avoid initial bump and wait for the release of insider shares but I don't really know. I am searching now to see if Invesco has made a statement on their QQQ fund and how this NASDAQ rule change is being dealt with.
GreatGazoo
(4,741 posts)"15 days from the IPO"
I like to be careful about financial stories that come from hyper-partisan media. One of the rules of gambling is "Never place a bet you don't full understand." Rawstory claims "this will force $30 trillion in 401Ks to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations". This is not true. The new instant inclusion thing is bad but not $30 trillion bad.
Here is better math: "somewhere between $15B and $30B in conservative scenarios, well over $100B in aggressive ones". So rawStory has exaggerated by a factor of 300x to 1,000x. And they completely omit: "Forced selling pressure on existing index members (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, etc.), proportional to their current index weight."
IOW these big passive index funds will be forced to sell more stable stocks to buy this IPO.
Lots of jargon but better math:
https://spotgamma.com/spacex-ipo-index-changes-spotgamma/
OGBuzz
(740 posts)were suggesting that all of it was going to be invested in SpaceX. The SpaceX valuation target is $1.8 trillion and they aim to raise $75 billion through the IPO.
A company which lost $4.9 billion in 2025 and which has never turned a profit.
Maybe I'm naive but it sure feels like a giant scam.
GreatGazoo
(4,741 posts)"feels like a giant scam" - Yes. It is a ponzi scheme where unprofitable Musk companies get rebundled inside of new unprofitable Musk companies and IPO'd all over again.
highplainsdem
(63,316 posts)https://www.democraticunderground.com/100221259845