General Discussion

Uncle Joe

(65,885 posts) Sat Jun 13, 2026, 04:07 PM 5 hrs ago

Buffett Expects a COLLAPSE

Buffett just built the biggest cash hoard in American corporate history, selling stocks for years and leaving billions idle. Some claim this predicts disaster, but the real story is hidden in the numbers. This breakdown follows the paper trail, exposes market psychology shifts, and explains why Buffett hasn’t bought back in.

Buffett’s successor is making opposite bets, pouring billions into AI, airlines, and housing. Find out what this clash inside Berkshire Hathaway could mean for your money, and why average investors can’t just follow billionaire trades anymore.

0:00 Buffett’s $397 Billion Cash Warning
2:12 Why Berkshire Is Selling Stocks Instead of Buying
4:18 The Massive Apple Dump Nobody Saw Coming
6:22 Buffett’s Real Message About Market “Gambling”
8:35 Is the Stock Market More Expensive Than the Dot-Com Bubble?
10:45 Greg Abel’s $10 Billion AI Bet Changes Everything
13:05 What Buffett’s Cash Pile Means for Your Retirement Portfolio

20 replies

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Buffett Expects a COLLAPSE (Original Post) Uncle Joe 5 hrs ago OP

Of course there will be edhopper 5 hrs ago #1

The encouraging thing is that he has it 'parked in boring old government T-bills' lostnfound 4 hrs ago #2

I've just stuck with mostly credit union CDs. Crowman2009 4 hrs ago #7

Ummm...you know that FDIC insurance you're probably hoping you'll never need? A HERETIC I AM 3 hrs ago #13

How about NCUA? BidenRocks 2 hrs ago #15

That's federally insured too EdmondDantes_ 1 hr ago #20

I think it means he thinks the dollar won't collapse as much as other currencies questionseverything 3 hrs ago #9

Uncle Joe, that's a pro-crypto and pro-AI firm based in Dubai. On X their account is Coin Bureau: highplainsdem 4 hrs ago #3

Thanks for the heads-up highplainsdem, Uncle Joe 4 hrs ago #4

I'm not going to watch a video from crypto bros. You can find info on Buffett's investments, and his highplainsdem 3 hrs ago #10

$300 billion Is Exactly DallasNE 2 hrs ago #16

Like tulip bulbs. No real value. multigraincracker 2 hrs ago #14

I should ask my well-off friend in Dallas what he thinks. DFW 4 hrs ago #5

Sounds reasonable. GoodRaisin 1 hr ago #19

Says who? WhiskeyGrinder 4 hrs ago #6

Counterpoint Happy Hoosier 3 hrs ago #8

I posted this on another thread, but it may fit better here Bluetus 3 hrs ago #11

We're near all time highs... of course there will be a dip. Smart people will buy the dip. WarGamer 3 hrs ago #12

I don't think that's what Buffet is saying. Bluetus 2 hrs ago #17

Precisely he said that the market psychology now was as a church combined with a casino. Uncle Joe 1 hr ago #18

edhopper

(37,630 posts)

1. Of course there will be

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 04:28 PM

5 hrs ago

between the biggest idiot the White House has ever seen, and the over investment into the AI bubble, a collapse is almost certain.

lostnfound

(17,693 posts)

2. The encouraging thing is that he has it 'parked in boring old government T-bills'

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 04:50 PM

4 hrs ago

guess that means he does not think the dollar will collapse and does not think the US government will default on its debt?

Crowman2009

(3,621 posts)

7. I've just stuck with mostly credit union CDs.

Reply to lostnfound (Reply #2)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 05:06 PM

4 hrs ago

I'm a bit iffy about financing this administration via treasury securities.

A HERETIC I AM

(24,910 posts)

13. Ummm...you know that FDIC insurance you're probably hoping you'll never need?

Reply to Crowman2009 (Reply #7)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 06:23 PM

3 hrs ago

That insurance is heavily invested in Treasuries.

So in a roundabout way, you are financing this administration

BidenRocks

(3,602 posts)

15. How about NCUA?

Reply to A HERETIC I AM (Reply #13)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 06:48 PM

2 hrs ago

EdmondDantes_

(2,237 posts)

20. That's federally insured too

Reply to BidenRocks (Reply #15)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 08:29 PM

1 hr ago

https://ncua.gov/consumers/share-insurance-coverage

Credit union members don’t need to apply to share insurance coverage as it’s provided automatically when they join a federally insured credit union. The Share Insurance Fund insures individual accounts at federally insured credit union up to $250,000, and a member’s interest in all joint accounts combined is insured up to $250,000. The Share Insurance Fund also separately protects IRA and KEOGH retirement accounts up to $250,000. The fund is administered by the NCUA and is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States.

questionseverything

(12,180 posts)

9. I think it means he thinks the dollar won't collapse as much as other currencies

Reply to lostnfound (Reply #2)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 05:45 PM

3 hrs ago

I hope he’s right on that

highplainsdem

(63,511 posts)

3. Uncle Joe, that's a pro-crypto and pro-AI firm based in Dubai. On X their account is Coin Bureau:

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 04:52 PM

4 hrs ago

https://x.com/coinbureau

Uncle Joe

(65,885 posts)

4. Thanks for the heads-up highplainsdem,

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #3)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 04:54 PM

4 hrs ago

but is their information incorrect insofar as Buffett's investments are concerned?

Per the video, Buffett is invested in treasuries vs crypto.

highplainsdem

(63,511 posts)

10. I'm not going to watch a video from crypto bros. You can find info on Buffett's investments, and his

Reply to Uncle Joe (Reply #4)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 05:55 PM

3 hrs ago

low opinion of crypto, by simply using search. I'd steer clear of crypto bros.

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/warren-buffett-warns-investors-risky-181400399.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/11/13/top-10-business-lessons-from-warren-buffett-for-life-ai-and-crypto/

https://www.investopedia.com/inside-buffett-s-strategy-berkshire-hathaway-owns-more-treasury-bills-than-the-federal-reserve-11850030

DallasNE

(8,020 posts)

16. $300 billion Is Exactly

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #10)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 06:51 PM

2 hrs ago

What Trump promised to give to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Is this just a coincidence, or is Buffett receiving a higher interest rate on his holdings to secure the deal?

multigraincracker

(38,205 posts)

14. Like tulip bulbs. No real value.

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #3)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 06:33 PM

2 hrs ago

DFW

(60,662 posts)

5. I should ask my well-off friend in Dallas what he thinks.

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 04:56 PM

4 hrs ago

He has about 60 shares of Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway-A stock, which cost him an average of under $70,000 a share. They are now ten times that. If he thinks there is a big bust on the way, he'll sell and eat the capital gains tax bill, which will be immense. He has a sixth sense about investing, which is how he came to accumulate so many share of BRK-A over 25 years ago to begin with. If he gets nervous enough to unload it all, even when it means a $12 million tax bill (or whatever it is these days) on the gain, I think THEN I will follow his lead on my own meager portfolio.

GoodRaisin

(11,145 posts)

19. Sounds reasonable.

Reply to DFW (Reply #5)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 08:01 PM

1 hr ago

WhiskeyGrinder

(27,332 posts)

6. Says who?

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 05:01 PM

4 hrs ago

Happy Hoosier

(9,693 posts)

8. Counterpoint

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 05:41 PM

3 hrs ago

Buffet has been sitting in cash for a while now and left a LOT of money on the table. A correction is likely coming, but when it comes, will it justify all the gains Buffet has foregone? I have my doubts. But I’m also not Buffet, so there’s that.

Bluetus

(3,219 posts)

11. I posted this on another thread, but it may fit better here

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 06:16 PM

3 hrs ago

For those who are concerned about their 401Ks

Many people have part of their savings in the SPY ETF or mutual funds that include the insanely priced Mag 7 stocks. These companies have such high valuations that they distort the entire S&P 500 population. The Mag 7 stocks represent almost 40% of the S&P 500 capitalization now. The Mag-7 average a P/E of almost 30, whereas a PE of 15-17 is considered historically normal. Meta and Microsoft are close to the historical range, but Tesla is hanging out there at around 400 P/E. And there is an expectation that Tesla will soon be rolled up under SpaceX. SpaceX has a P/E of infinity. They are losing money bigly every quarter.

So what is an investor to do in this situation if one believes a) the Mag 7 companies are fundamentally overvalued, b) they are making a big mistake by dumping trillions into new AI data center capacity, and C) everything Musk does is ultimately a fraud of unprecedented proportions?

In an ideal world, there would be an ETF that includes the 500 companies, minus anything Musk has his fingers on. There is no such vehicle today, AFAIK. A sophisticated investor might buy the full index, but hedge against at least the Musk companies through options. Another strategy is a S&P 500 "equal weight" fund or ETF. In these funds, the Mag-7 have 4/500 weight instead of their almost 40% weight. These equal-weight funds have underperformed the S&P 500 in the past decade, but that's the point. The big "gains" have largely come from the crazy-valued mega-cap stocks. If one believes they are headed for an implosion, then an equal-weight fund might be a sensible alternative.

Any opinions about this?

WarGamer

(18,924 posts)

12. We're near all time highs... of course there will be a dip. Smart people will buy the dip.

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 06:19 PM

3 hrs ago

Like they always do.

Bluetus

(3,219 posts)

17. I don't think that's what Buffet is saying.

Reply to WarGamer (Reply #12)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 06:52 PM

2 hrs ago

BRK doesn't invest in equities per se. They buy controlling interests in companies they thing have fundamental value but can deliver better results with better management. He sees through the short-term nonsense (realizing that some of this "short-term nonsense" has been with us for 15+ years now.

Buffet is not looking to "buy the dip, per se. However, if there is an equity or debt crash toat places some fundamentally good businesses into great stress, THAT is the kind of oportunity BRK would jump on.

Uncle Joe

(65,885 posts)

18. Precisely he said that the market psychology now was as a church combined with a casino.

Reply to Bluetus (Reply #17)

Sat Jun 13, 2026, 07:38 PM

1 hr ago

I thought that was particularly telling considering *rump's track record with casinos.

However now with his successor, BRK's investment strategy seems to have changed.

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