To close to zero, or even negative.

Frantic emails, lowering prices, ditching app requirements on some prices, everything seems slow to move. Of course many consumers could be away on vacation, or substituting beer for carbs, but still.

I have for decades. I watch the data and get a pretty good feel for things for investing strategies. I think the data is almost completely divorced from investing now save for how the data might impact changes to the interest rates.

Things are getting scary for a lot of people and there are a lot of people out of work for longer periods of time. Not a crisis yet, but this is trending bad. We added basically no jobs in all of 2025, so we needed a big rebound in 2026 and we're not even close to getting one.

Edit: Case in point, markets up with this news today as it makes interest rate hikes less likely.

the economy sucks and people are still being laid off or fired by the thousands.

Of course, nary a peep when it happens under Trump.

"U.S. job market makes slower but steady gains." Talk about being in the tank for trump.

during this term. A Reminder that during the Biden administration, job growth averaged +321,000 per month. Even during Biden's final year, when job growth slowed, the average gain per month was 103,000.

Shows exactly how awful Trump has been for jobs in this country.

Not only was June much lower than expected, April and May's significant downward revisions mean as a result, the job total for June is now 17,000 below the total reported on the May report.

Really terrible numbers for Trump.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

I show after revisions down, 2024 was still 168,000 jobs added per month. Either way, a helleva a lot better than Trump's first 17 months in office.

In 2024, the U.S. economy added just over 2 million nonfarm payroll jobs in total, with monthly gains averaging around 168,000. Following annual benchmark revisions by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024 hiring estimates were significantly reduced, making it the slowest year for employment growth since 2020.

Last edited Thu Jul 2, 2026, 10:59 AM - Edit history (1)

January was under Biden as the survey reference period is the 12th of the month, prior to when Trump was re-inaugurated.

Your numbers for 2024 are wrong regardless. December 2023 job total was 156,857,000. December 2024 was 158,316,000. That's an increase of 1,459,000, or 121,600 per month.

I assume there have been additional revisions to the data since the passage you quoted was written.

2008/9 on steroids.

The housing market and the banks are on solid footing.

Auto industry has been scrambling since the tariffs, been impossible for them to plan and they've absorbed a lot of risk over it.

predicting that the June jobs report would be robust, thanks to the World Cup?

What would it have been without the World Cup boost?

Last edited Thu Jul 2, 2026, 01:27 PM - Edit history (1)

The media is so corrupt, especially the parts of the media that cover the economy and business.

Been posted about a ton here, but there were months where Biden's economy added 180,000 + jobs and the media acted like it was awful because expectations were so high for him. The media sets expectations so low for Trump that they acted like 167,000 jobs added last month was spectacular. This month, 115,000 were expected, if we would have added 150,000 they would have acted like it was amazing.

Same with gas prices, the media and people are acting like $3.49 a gallon is a great success when it was under $3 not long ago.

After years of real wage gains under Biden and into the early part of this Trump term, wage growth is lagging inflation again under Trump for the 4th month in a row now. People were getting ahead and are no w falling behind again.

Crypto, Bitcoin and others that are backed by the dollar. My theory about why Krasnov wanted Fed rate cuts was to crash the dollar and boost Crypto.

His crypto scam is the biggest corruption scandal in US history and it barely gets talked about. It's literally pay for US policy changes as foreign governments are buying Trump crypto in exchange for all sorts of changes in US policy.

Part of it Trump and his people do not understand the economy and how the Fed operates.

The more Donald Trump insists the economy is amazing, the more we are confronted with evidence to the contrary.

All told, the U.S. economy has added 668,000 jobs over Trump’s 18-month second term.

Over the previous 18 months, the economy added over 2.4 million jobs.

To date, the White House hasn’t even tried to explain why the job market worsened after Trump took office.
www.ms.now/rachel-maddo...

— Steve Benen (@stevebenen.com) 2026-07-02T12:59:08.353Z

Expectations heading into this week showed projections of about 115,000 new jobs being created in the United States in June. As it turns out, according to the new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the totals fell far short of those expectations. CNBC reported:

The U.S. economy saw job creation cool sharply heading into the summer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

Nonfarm payrolls for June increased by a seasonally adjusted 57,000 for the month, slower than the downwardly revised 129,000 added in May and worse than the 115,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast.

The unemployment rate inched lower to 4.2%, which is still low by historical standards, though it’s still higher than it was when Donald Trump’s second term began.

Also discouraging were the revisions for April and May, which subtracted a combined 74,000 jobs from previous estimates.....

All told, the U.S. economy has added 668,000 jobs over Trump’s 18-month second term. Over the previous 18 months, the economy added more than 2.4 million jobs. To date, the White House hasn’t even tried to explain why the domestic job market worsened after the Republican president took office.

?resize=560,301

To contextualize the data, I put together this chart to show month-to-month totals since the 2020 election. The blue columns point to Biden’s presidency, while the red columns point to Trump’s.

When you have a 2025 for jobs like we had, it's just expected that the next year is going to be a bonce back year. We're not getting that and the consequences are going to be disastrous for working people. You cannot have a year and a half while adding so few jobs and not expect a deep recession.

I've only casually paid attention to this number over the years, but 115K seems very low.

And didn't hit even half of that? Yikes.

There is probably 1.5 million net migration out in the last 12 months. They are going to take their jobs with them.

150K to 300K net migration out.

But yeah, these people create jobs with their labor and spending.

Population growth is still a thing and requires us to create 135 to 150K jobs just to break even.

The census is a completely unreliable source for several reasons: 1) Trump, 2) Most population projections are straight lines of about the last 5 to 10 years of whatever trend is being projected. That is never accurate, and is certainly not accurate for immigration. I think that immigration to the U.S. has fallen off a cliff, unless you think millions are coming to the U.S. to be arrested and abused by ICE agents. 3) Per most estimates of undocumented immigration, the total number in the U.S. got to a high of about 13 million in 2024. There has been massive deportation and self-deportation since then. I would not be surprised if this number is 11 million or even less by now, meaning a lot of people have left.

My number of net migration out is probably low.

Another problem with the total workers number is that the workforce is aging and projections typically underestimate how many older Americans leave the workforce.