the difference between energy in and energy out. Earth is currently trapping energy by the Greenhouse Effect and not reflecting or emitting it as much as it takes in. The EEI (in Watts) is very large. per wiki, "During 2005 to 2019 the Earth's energy imbalance averaged about 460" terawatts (10^12)*. In 2012 to 2024, the imbalance is about twice as large as the period 1971-2006.

The imbalance between energy-in and energy-out has grown in the 21 century, and the rate of increase of the imbalance is accelerating. It looks like positive feedback processes (like melting ice exposing darker seawater which absorbs more heat than ice) are kicking in. The rate of change is now greater than ANY model predictions, per the article. Something is contributing to the imbalance that we don't know about, and it's a biggie.

Like the saying goes, reality is what takes you by surprise.

*to put that 460 terawatt imbalance into perspective, wiki says the total installed global solar capacity is a little over 1 terawatt.

I think the compounding effect of synergized feedback loops is going to seal it

The boat is rocking.

This study is the first I've heard of that tries to quantify "reality", in the sense of reality surprising us. We will see unexpected unknown variables manifest themselves in unpredicted ways. With any luck we'll get some negative feedbacks slowing the rate of change, but with any luck I'll also hit the lotto.

For those who can: install solar panels and storage batteries. Community resources like that saved lives after Maria flattened Puerto Rico and the power failed. Medical equipment and communications were powered that way.

DISTRIBUTE THE POWER! electrical and political.

Runaway greenhouse effect.

The oceans will boil and all life on earth will perish.

Our last chance was ruined by Trump.

but I agree, I lost hope when Musk elected Trump.
We had a slim chance, and blew it.