I'm sorry but all he does is lie, I'd fully expect he would have everyone else do it too.

Last edited Thu Jul 31, 2025, 07:04 AM - Edit history (1)

Sheesh

That uptick couldn’t possibly be due to everything being more expensive because of the tariffs could it? Talk about cooking the books.

"Real" means inflation-adjusted in BEA and BLS-speak
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

They subtracted imports from US output/product for 1Q, which soared in anticipation of tariffs and "gut loading" the supply chains with all kinds of yummy things.

In 2Q imports dropped off, so there was less to subtract and the remainder was larger.

Given the imbalance, until further notice the best we can do on the fly is take the average of the two. It's wrong--there were some underlying issues in 1Q.

not where I am tho. Prices are getting ridiculous. Veggies are not in good shape, etc.

And the eggs are still too damn high.

right and left.

2.1% vs 2.5% (both down from the previous 3.7%)

All economic news from government agencies is now suspect due to purges of "non-loyalists"

Which remains largely independent of the administration's tentacles.

The current head was appointed in 2022.

Last edited Wed Jul 30, 2025, 10:15 AM - Edit history (1)

The fear is real, even if people were there before January. Say the wrong thing and you are instantly fired.

Bad economic numbers, like the last CPI report was taken as proof that tariffs and labor shortages were re-igniting inflation. And the disastrous May retail sales report (minus 0.9%) also was accepted as proof that the economy was falling apart. None of these threads got any responses about book-cooking or manipulation.

Please give us credit for being consistent

is massaging numbers to avoid Trump firing them? Also, there sources of data are uncorrupted?

Not being paranoid, but the times call for massive skepticism about any "official" government pronouncement.

That isn’t proof that it isn’t happening… but there also isn’t any evidence that it is.

Keep in mind that this isn’t a black box with “3.0%… trust us” on the side. The report is quite detailed and breaks things down to very granular categories. It would be nearly impossible to make things up without getting caught

DT:We grew bigly, so bigly the best ever bigly in the history of the United States, because of me. Nobody have grown it more bigly than me ever. I’ll take questions

He preens as he waits for the first question

Reporter with a spine (probably from Scotland): sir, is this a tactic to sever your attention from your involvement with Epstein and not releasing the client list?

DT: you are a nasty man. Press thingy is over i have gol..work to do!!!

From MarketWatch:

Last edited Wed Jul 30, 2025, 11:53 AM - Edit history (1)

GDP is ready to pop, but not because the U.S. economy is popping, Marketwatch, 7/29/25
(remember, this is well-before the release of today's GDP report)
https://archive.ph/LPmfZ

By the way the last and final estimate of Q1 GDP was minus 0.2%.
So, averaging the two quarters together: -0.2% and +3.0% = 2.8%/2 = 1.4%

Edit I was wrong about Q1 GDP, it is reported as minus 0.5% in today's release

https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2025-advance-estimate
and https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

So, like you say, the 2 quarters average to just 1.25%

And you can trust this mis-administration about as far as you can spit a rat

This is bullshit. Every business that I know is hurting. I can't go to the grocery store for more than five items without paying at least $100, and the housing market in South Texas is about to tank.

Insurance costs are out of this world, medical care is harder to find. There is NOTHING good about this administration, and I resent the media trying to sugar coat what's going on.

Sound pissed off? Yep, that's my attitude since the asshole was put back in control.

In my field, a lot of people are losing their jobs.

They are laying people off right and left in our area. Employees are stressed and worried.

Figures run your way? Big news.
Figures run against you? Don't believe them! Corrupt!

There are plenty of reasons the numbers have come out the way they have and they can be discovered by digging a bit deeper. But very few here dare question their own confirmation bias.

if I saw any evidence of this so-called improvement in the economy around me. All i see is prices are getting higher and people I know of, are losing jobs.

There is evidence in the data that the job market is fraying a little bit at the edges, but it is not yet heavy. The change (second derivative) in inflation (first derivative) has ticked up one tenth of one percent.

The GDP figures dropped Q1 because of tariff expectations and gyrations. Q2 is the mirror. Both cases are aberrations because of uncertainty and tariff turmoil. Neither is as indicative as would be in normal times. Neither has been jiggered.

Certainly nothing has improved for me personally.

Unemployment is still very low, but try finding a tech job these days as AI is leading to major layoffs, just as one example.

I think the figures are probably pretty close to the aggregate reality, but the good news may well be temporary.

I can't be precise enough to confirm 3.0% growth exactly, but I'm seeing a modest bump in sales and am certainly no longer in recession watch like I was 3-4 months ago.

The markets and to a lesser extent businesses are largely ignoring the tariff noise because Donnie has lost all credibility with his massive pronouncements followed by massive retreats and delays and exceptions.

More uncertainty is in the inflation numbers, I have less private visibility into this. Gas prices seem to have backed off a little and that might be driving the better figures, which means it may be temporary.

even allowing for real adjustments.

Plus it's summer and MAGA Americans are spending more because they are so happy that brainy people are unemployed.

Remember the band with Steve Winwood; Eric Clapton; Ginger Baker, Ric Grech ?....BLIND FAITH!!

utility bills, basic insurance costs. Gas is a bit cheaper but it always is this time of year, that's about it. They (anyone in office) can toss these economic number's around all they want. The people I talk to, MAGA or not, when they sit down at the table at the end of the month to pay bills they are still struggling overall.

That's the most important number right there period.

I get it, prices haven't gone down, but why haven't the inflation numbers gone up? I understand Trump cooks the books but the numbers should be somewhere other than the price of coffee and toys.

were re-igniting inflation.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143496078

We get a look at PCE inflation for June tomorrow, the Fed's favorite gauge. I don't expect it to be as high as the CPI report was, because it seldom is. That's partly or mostly because the PCE is a "chained" index which means that, for example, if enough consumers switch from beef to turkey necks and other lower-cost kinds of meat, then it will show up as a decrease in meat prices in the PCE. That's because chained types of indices fully include substitution effects.

One other thing comes to mind: the PCE puts LESS weight on shelter than the CPI does. Shelter increases have been high relative to most other components, so this tends to make the PCE come out lower than the CPI.

The estimate for tomorrow's PCE June over May increases are +0.3% for both the regular and the core numbers (those are about 3.6% when annualized, which is kinda hot), but I doubt they will be that high, again because of the substitution effect.