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SunSeeker

(56,501 posts)
Sat Aug 2, 2025, 08:00 PM Aug 2

'A black hole': New graduates discover a dismal job market

Source: NBC News

Recent graduates looking to enter an increasingly shaky labor market are painting a dire picture of their job search: “A black hole,” one said. “I’m disheartened,” said another. “I almost feel like it wasn’t worth going to school,” said a third.

The national economic data backs up their experience. The unemployment rate among recent graduates has been increasing this year to an average of 5.3%, compared to around 4% for the labor force as a whole, making it one of the toughest job markets for recent graduates since 2015, according to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released Friday.

“Recent college graduates are on the margin of the labor market, and so they’re the first to feel when the labor market slows and hiring slows,” said Jaison Abel, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Across the economy, hiring in recent months has ground to its slowest pace since the start of the pandemic, with employers adding just 73,000 jobs in July, according to data released Friday. The number of longer-term unemployed people who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks increased last month by 179,000 to 1.8 million.



Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/job-market-report-college-student-graduates-ai-trump-tariffs-rcna221693



My son graduates UCSD next June. His friends who just graduated this June with normally lucrative degrees like computer science and engineering are desperately looking. And UCSD is a top STEM school. I can only imagine what it's like for other grads. This could have something to do with Trump's precipitous in approval among young voters since he took office. It's brutal out there for young people.
9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies

ThoughtCriminal

(14,624 posts)
2. CEOs think AI can replace entry level jobs
Sat Aug 2, 2025, 10:14 PM
Aug 2

And in a few years they will wonder why they can't find experienced workers.

RussBLib

(10,003 posts)
5. 542,000/month average under Biden?
Sat Aug 2, 2025, 11:54 PM
Aug 2

That seems too high.

I saw one 15 million jobs added figure, divided by 48 months results in about 312,000/ month. That still seems too high but closer.

https://russblib.blogspot.com/?m=1

progree

(12,240 posts)
7. I get 336k/month average. From the BLS itself
Sun Aug 3, 2025, 12:42 AM
Aug 3
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2021: 365 509 824 365 421 796 931 487 466 857 637 575
2022: 225 869 471 305 241 461 696 237 227 400 297 126
2023: 444 306 85 216 227 257 148 157 158 186 141 269
2024: 119 222 246 118 193 87 88 71 240 44 261 323
2025: 111 102 120

Highlighted months sum to 16,140k (336k/month average)
Gives the February 2021 over January 2021 increase (509k) to Biden
Gives the February 2025 over January 2025 increase (102k) to tRump

RussBLib

(10,003 posts)
9. That's more believable
Sun Aug 3, 2025, 02:53 PM
Aug 3

Even without the inflation to over 500k/month, Biden outperformed everyone else.

Trump is probably going to end up with negative numbers, like he did in his first term.

And Dems will have to put the shit back together AGAIN, like we have done so many times in my lifetime.

https://russblib.blogspot.com/?m=1

Mawspam2

(1,015 posts)
4. There are a lot of experienced government people that got DOGEd.
Sat Aug 2, 2025, 11:49 PM
Aug 2

Employers, if they are looking to hire in the face of an incoming Trump recession, are going to hire these stable and desperate workers first.

progree

(12,240 posts)
6. +73k jobs in July. was the highlight of the last 3 months. May: + 19k, June: +14k. See also black UR
Sun Aug 3, 2025, 12:12 AM
Aug 3

From the OP excerpt:

with employers adding just 73,000 jobs in July, according to data released Friday.

and just 19k in May, and 14k in June, but that's ancient history I guess.

The headline payroll job numbers (+73,000 in July) come from the Establishment Survey
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2022: 225 869 471 305 241 461 696 237 227 400 297 126
2023: 444 306 85 216 227 257 148 157 158 186 141 269
2024: 119 222 246 118 193 87 88 71 240 44 261 323
2025: 111 102 120 158 19 14 73

==================================================
The separate Household Survey's Employed numbers were even worse in the last 3 months, in thousands:
(696) 93 (260)
()'s denote negative numbers
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth

==================================================
The black unemployment rate (7.2%) is the worst since the pandemic-era October 2021
It was 6.2% in January.   Latest (July) : 7.2%. That's quite a climb in just 6 months.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
Didn't Trump ask Black people, during his campaign, "What have you got to lose"?

Many more links: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143505265#post17

SunSeeker

(56,501 posts)
8. The young men and people of color who swung to Trump found out what they had to lose.
Sun Aug 3, 2025, 01:48 AM
Aug 3

I guess they were in a coma from 2016-2020. All they remember was the economy was good before covid. But actually, the economy was slowing down at the end of 2019 because of Trump's stupid tariffs on soybeans and other crops. Those who don't learn their history are doomed to repeat it---on steroids. Sadly, we are all swept up in their FAFO.

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