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BumRushDaShow

(160,919 posts)
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 12:31 PM Yesterday

Labor Department won't release Friday's key jobs report, other data, in case of a shutdown

Source: CNBC

Published Mon, Sep 29 2025 12:01 PM EDT Updated 10 Min Ago


The Labor Department is preparing for what would amount to a news and data blackout should the U.S. government suspend operations.

In a contingency plan released Friday, the department said it was looking “to ensure that DOL agencies can perform an orderly suspension of programs and operations should a lapse occur, while continuing those limited activities authorized to continue during a lapse.”

While the department’s scope covers a multitude of areas, the impact on data releases will be pressing for investors. The DOL, in conjunction with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has several key reports upcoming that will provide important clues about the direction of the economy and inform Federal Reserve policymakers ahead of their next meeting in October.

“BLS will suspend all operations,” the 73-page plan stated. “Economic data that are scheduled to be released during the lapse will not be released.”

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/29/bls-wont-be-releasing-data-including-fridays-key-jobs-report-in-case-of-a-shutdown.html

33 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Labor Department won't release Friday's key jobs report, other data, in case of a shutdown (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Yesterday OP
If you believe that I could sell you the Brooklyn Bridge at a reasonable price. nycbos Yesterday #1
This is totally normal procedure for an October 1 shutdown Wiz Imp Yesterday #13
Why not just do away with these silly economic statistics all together? LudwigPastorius Yesterday #2
That may be a very real possibility in the near future. Wiz Imp Yesterday #15
The stock market would have a meltdown. Doodley Yesterday #3
Who cares? They'd all be cooked anyway. PSPS Yesterday #4
Wrong. The career professional economists there are not appointed. Please stop with the disinformation. . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Yesterday #6
Sure, but with Erika McEntarfer gone, who's to know? PSPS Yesterday #20
Knowledgeable people (Wiz Imp) have told you. That's how you know. Trust Wiz Imp more than tRump Bernardo de La Paz Yesterday #21
Please stop. You're wrong. Wiz Imp Yesterday #12
LOL. Yes, trump's tantrum and subsequent firing of Erika McEntarfer means nothing. Gotcha. PSPS Yesterday #19
Correct. They mean nothing. Later, if economists get fired, they might mean something. Bernardo de La Paz Yesterday #22
You've already been explained to why you're wrong Wiz Imp Yesterday #23
The data will be ready Wednesday morning, per normal, could be released then. Bernardo de La Paz Yesterday #5
"the report is on the Commissioner's desk Wednesday morning BumRushDaShow Yesterday #11
Correct. The jobs data is always embargoed until 8:30 am on the first Friday of each month. Wiz Imp Yesterday #16
Oh I know. I post these most months BumRushDaShow Yesterday #17
Another way is simply go to the bls.gov home page, and keep refreshing progree Yesterday #24
Oh I know - their X posts include a link to their release BumRushDaShow Yesterday #25
I figured you knew, but for those who don't - it's the easiest way for DU members and other regular types progree Yesterday #26
BLS has so much on their site BumRushDaShow Yesterday #27
Oh, I was only recommending checking bls.gov for the 2 headline numbers and maybe the initial paragraph progree Yesterday #28
See???? BumRushDaShow 23 hrs ago #29
Here's a charts package from the BLS that I should include in my job reports links progree 19 hrs ago #30
Thank you! BumRushDaShow 10 hrs ago #32
Here's another BLS graphic that is readily available -- the two key graphs over a 2-year period progree 14 hrs ago #31
Thanks! BumRushDaShow 10 hrs ago #33
The Republicans are majorities in both houses and hold the Presidency and the Supreme Court Prairie Gates Yesterday #7
They don't have 60 votes needed in the Senate. . . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Yesterday #8
ISM and ADP release on Wed., Challenger on Thursday, and ISM more on Friday. . . . .nt Bernardo de La Paz Yesterday #9
This is the exact same thing BLS did back in 2013 when a shutdown happened on Oct. 1 Wiz Imp Yesterday #10
During the last 45 shutdown (2018 - 2019), DOL had an appropriation BumRushDaShow Yesterday #14
I guess we don't have to pay their salaries then FakeNoose Yesterday #18

Wiz Imp

(7,549 posts)
13. This is totally normal procedure for an October 1 shutdown
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 02:26 PM
Yesterday

See post 10.

Nothing remotely nefarious about it - unless you believe Obama engaged in similar nefarious behavior in 2013.

LudwigPastorius

(13,492 posts)
2. Why not just do away with these silly economic statistics all together?
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 12:41 PM
Yesterday

That way the economy can be whatever the One True Leader says it is.

Wiz Imp

(7,549 posts)
15. That may be a very real possibility in the near future.
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 02:28 PM
Yesterday

It would be near impossible to get away with reporting manipulated data so the only logical option thy have to suppress bad data is to simply discontinue reporting it.

Bernardo de La Paz

(58,961 posts)
6. Wrong. The career professional economists there are not appointed. Please stop with the disinformation. . . nt
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 01:48 PM
Yesterday

Bernardo de La Paz

(58,961 posts)
21. Knowledgeable people (Wiz Imp) have told you. That's how you know. Trust Wiz Imp more than tRump
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 03:29 PM
Yesterday

Wiz Imp worked at BLS. Wiz Imp knows a heck of a lot more about it than you ever will, even if you began to gather information.

Wiz Imp

(7,549 posts)
12. Please stop. You're wrong.
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 02:23 PM
Yesterday

Do you realize you sound like a MAGA cult member who said Biden faked all his numbers? Conspiracy theories are bad no matter which side does it.

PSPS

(14,973 posts)
19. LOL. Yes, trump's tantrum and subsequent firing of Erika McEntarfer means nothing. Gotcha.
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 03:23 PM
Yesterday

Bernardo de La Paz

(58,961 posts)
22. Correct. They mean nothing. Later, if economists get fired, they might mean something.
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 03:34 PM
Yesterday

The Commissioner can't fudge the data which is all public and all reviewed by outside economists too. Procedures are public documented and calculations are double checked against the original data.

It is a terrible smear on people to claim that just because they were not fired they are now suddenly corrupt.

You keep making the claim with no understanding and no information. Please stop the disinformation.

Wiz Imp

(7,549 posts)
23. You've already been explained to why you're wrong
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 03:57 PM
Yesterday

by Bernardo de La Paz, so I'm not going to waste much time on you. I'll just make one final comment.

I'll assume you agree that the data prior to the BLS Commissioner being fired was not manipulated. If it was manipulated for Trump then he wouldn't have fired her. (If you believe it was being manipulated before that, then you're a lost cause).

BLS, despite being an agency of about 2300 employees, has exactly 1 political appointee - the BLS Commissioner. That position is currently vacant while Trump's nominee awaits Senate confirmation. In the meantime, there is an acting BLS Commissioner (Bill Wiatrowski) who is a lifelong civil servant for BLS who is not now nor has he ever been a political appointee . He has served as acting Commissioner multiple times under both Republicans and Democrats. I know Bill. He is a good honest man. As long as he is the Acting Commissioner, I can guarantee you that the BLS data remain honest. (Whether you choose to believe it or not - that is the truth).

Bernardo de La Paz

(58,961 posts)
5. The data will be ready Wednesday morning, per normal, could be released then.
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 01:47 PM
Yesterday

Maybe it's bad.

On a regular basis I refute the automatic cynics who automatically say "the data is corrupt" because the cynics are just shitting on the professionals.

But in this case, the decision to not release comes from the acting Commissioner (I'm certain but have no specific info), the only political appointee, from above the level of the professionals. Normally, the report is on the Commissioner's desk Wednesday morning and is released Friday morning.

BumRushDaShow

(160,919 posts)
11. "the report is on the Commissioner's desk Wednesday morning
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 02:22 PM
Yesterday

(insert the term - "embargoed" ) and is released Friday morning".

Wiz Imp

(7,549 posts)
16. Correct. The jobs data is always embargoed until 8:30 am on the first Friday of each month.
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 02:39 PM
Yesterday

BLS, despite being an agency of about 2300 employees, has exactly 1 political appointee - the BLS Commissioner. That position is currently vacant while Trump's nominee awaits Senate confirmation. In the meantime, there is an acting BLS Commissioner (Bill Wiatrowski) who is a lifelong civil servant for BLS who is not now nor has he ever been a political appointee. He has served as acting Commissioner multiple times under both Reoublicans and Democrats.

The commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does not even see the jobs numbers before they are finalized. The process is intentionally designed to keep the commissioner, who is a political appointee, at arm's length from the data collection and estimation process to protect the integrity of the statistics.

Key details about the process:

Final numbers are locked in The commissioner is typically briefed on the final numbers on the Wednesday afternoon before the public release on Friday. By this point, the data is prepared, finalized, and locked into the system.

No role in estimation The commissioner plays no role in estimating or manipulating the figures. Their involvement is limited to reviewing the accompanying narrative for the public release, not altering the underlying data.

Internal safeguards The BLS maintains a strong culture of independence and has systems in place to prevent any single person, including the commissioner, from interfering with the data. Former commissioners have stated it would be impossible to manipulate the data without being detected, which would likely trigger whistleblowers and resignations.

Career staff handles data The numbers are collected and processed by nonpartisan career civil servants who have no connection to the political administration.

These safeguards came under scrutiny in August 2025 when then-President Donald Trump fired Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after a weak jobs report and baselessly alleged the numbers were "rigged". However, multiple former BLS officials, including those appointed by Trump, rejected the idea that the commissioner could manipulate the data.

BumRushDaShow

(160,919 posts)
17. Oh I know. I post these most months
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 02:51 PM
Yesterday

and refresh CNBC & Yahoo! Finance (who do this regularly) waiting for the report to release and get an article from either.

I'll also do a search for their X post that also has the link to their embargoed release (to include in my OPs for "the source" ).

progree

(12,372 posts)
24. Another way is simply go to the bls.gov home page, and keep refreshing
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 05:47 PM
Yesterday

and it will show a link to their jobs report at the top when it's available (at 830 AM ET sharp on whatever day; not always first Friday, there are about 1-2 exceptions to that each year, the last one was Thursday July 3 because Friday was July 4).

BumRushDaShow

(160,919 posts)
25. Oh I know - their X posts include a link to their release
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 06:08 PM
Yesterday

I already have hundreds of tabs in a row, a bunch that I am normally refreshing (and doing CNBC's is bad enough as it is), so...

progree

(12,372 posts)
26. I figured you knew, but for those who don't - it's the easiest way for DU members and other regular types
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 06:36 PM
Yesterday

to see the numbers first (again for regular people) and easy to remember: "bls.gov"

Irregular people include BLS insiders and as I understand it, certain media outlets still are allowed an advanced view (so they can write some kind of story and have it ready for the appropriate moment), though I remember there was a thread several months ago about doing away with that, and maybe they have?

BumRushDaShow

(160,919 posts)
27. BLS has so much on their site
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 07:13 PM
Yesterday

that you can get dizzy (and I know you guys dive into the separate tables and stuff)!

I think some like Jeff Cox on CNBC may get an advanced copy but I expect they have someone else doing the initial headlines (and they are real quick with "breaking news" headlines before any copy is ready to publish) and he might get a couple lines of summary in and then work on the detail (including plugging data into graphs, etc).

progree

(12,372 posts)
28. Oh, I was only recommending checking bls.gov for the 2 headline numbers and maybe the initial paragraph
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 07:36 PM
Yesterday

but yes, the linked-to "summary", always https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm , goes on and on.

And it's annoying as hell when they keep using the words, "changed little" over and over again and again

Yes, I also look at the main table for both the Establishment Survey (err, REPORT), and the Household Survey (err, REPORT) because at a glance it tells me what the important but non-headline numbers like Labor Force, Labor Force Participation Rate, Employment, employment population ratio, civilian non-institutional population and a couple other things did as far as changes over the last month.

Also, I page down to the bottom of the summary where they have the Revisions. As you know, I consider the revisions to the previous 2 months' payroll jobs numbers to be just as important as the latest month's headline number. E.g. in the August report, the headline [non-farm payroll] jobs number gain was +22,000. The previous two months were revised down by a combined 21,000, and thus the total number of jobs was only 1,000 more than were reported the previous month. To me, the +1,000 is the key takeaway number on job growth.

I also like to average the last 3 months' growth numbers and last 12 months' growth number. In the August report, I also found the 4 month average interesting:

3 months: 29k/mo
4 months: 27k/mo
12 months: 122k/mo

For the deep-dive nerds, these don't include the 911k downward revision of the April 2024 thru March 2025 period, as that is a preliminary report (the BLS data series doesn't show them either) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

progree

(12,372 posts)
30. Here's a charts package from the BLS that I should include in my job reports links
Tue Sep 30, 2025, 12:37 AM
19 hrs ago

As before, the news summary is https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm ,

The "News release charts" link is at the bottom of news summary -- https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/

Some things to note:

"click and drag within the chart to zoom in on time periods" (not sticky unfortunately)

Can click on items in the legend that want to display/undisplay.

Hover mouse over a line that want to make much stronger / bolder. It will also pop up the nearest data point - value & mm/yy




I drew the vertical yellow line free-hand -- that's about where January 2025 is, the beginning of tRump's reign

I remember when tRump asked Black Americans, what have you got to lose? This chart answers that

There is also a "Show Table" link below each graph:

Total unemployment rate from January 2025 to August 2025: 4.0% --> 4.3%
Black unemployment rate from January 2025 to August 2025: 6.2% --> 7.5%

I don't see any tools in either the Windows snipping tool or in Imgur that allow me to add a simple element like a vertical line. In Imgur I don't see anything at all. In Windows snipping tool (WindowKey Shift S), I can only do freehand drawing, sigh.

I like looking at plots and finding trends!


Also all the data series I post each job report links to a table and graph.

progree

(12,372 posts)
31. Here's another BLS graphic that is readily available -- the two key graphs over a 2-year period
Tue Sep 30, 2025, 05:50 AM
14 hrs ago

From the news release summary as before: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Click on "The PDF version of the news release" at the bottom of the page. Result: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

this has the two chief graphs: unemployment rate and non-farm payroll jobs at the top:



This 40 page PDF has all the tables (unfortunately only the two graphs). I always download and save.

Why the news release summary doesn't have these two graphs, I have no reason why.

Prairie Gates

(6,367 posts)
7. The Republicans are majorities in both houses and hold the Presidency and the Supreme Court
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 01:51 PM
Yesterday

If they don't want the government to shut down, they shouldn't shut it down.

Wiz Imp

(7,549 posts)
10. This is the exact same thing BLS did back in 2013 when a shutdown happened on Oct. 1
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 02:20 PM
Yesterday

That shutdown lasted 16 days and they released the data once the shutdown ended.

Nothing remotely nefarious is going on. BLS still has the revised schedule announcement from 2013 available on their website here:

https://www.bls.gov/bls/updated_release_schedule.htm


BumRushDaShow

(160,919 posts)
14. During the last 45 shutdown (2018 - 2019), DOL had an appropriation
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 02:28 PM
Yesterday

and could continue their work.

I remember that was the same situation with my agency during the 1995 - 1996 shutdown where we had an appropriation, but few others did, so we were going to work in a multi-agency building that was nearly empty.

FakeNoose

(38,794 posts)
18. I guess we don't have to pay their salaries then
Mon Sep 29, 2025, 03:00 PM
Yesterday

Actually it's the taxpayers who should be having the shutdown.

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