Deal to extend ObamaCare subsidies faces uphill battle despite GOP optimism

Source: The Hill

12/26/25 6:00 AM ET


A key GOP senator is expressing optimism that Republicans and Democrats will agree to a deal that would extend expiring health care subsidies, but the effort faces an uphill climb in winning the backing of leaders in both parties. Without a deal, health insurance premiums are projected to spike by double digits next month, yet Senate leaders John Thune (R-S.D.) and Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) each have reasons to shy away from backing a bipartisan deal.

At the same time, failure to pass a bipartisan deal to rein in rising premiums could set the stage for another government shutdown in February if liberals on Capitol Hill seize the initiative and demand concessions on health in exchange for funding the government. “I actually think there’s the outline of a deal there,” said Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee Chair Bill Cassidy (La.), a lead Republican negotiator in the bipartisan health care talks.

“The outline of the deal would be to extend the enhanced premium tax credits for a period of time and to put in health savings accounts and give the enrollee the choice of which to take,” he told The Hill. He cautioned, however, that key details still need to be worked out. “Now that’s high-level because details we’ve got to work out,” Cassidy said. “I do think there’s potential for a deal there.” “I think we can do it,” he added.

A Republican senator who requested anonymity to discuss the negotiations said that Thune has appeared to shift on the issue of extending enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits after four House Republicans signed a discharge petition to force a House vote on a Democratic proposal to extend the subsidies for three years.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5662800-gop-senator-health-care-deal/

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Per this - https://swingleft.org/house#swingdistricts

there appears to be 16 swing district Republicans and 3 open seats in swing districts.

The non-competitive vacancies are - TX-18 (D) (runoff for Sylvester Turner's seat is in Jan 2026), NJ-11 (D) (special election for Mikie Sherrill's seat is in Apr 2026) & GA-14 (R) (special election for MTG's seat whenever that is scheduled once MTG she resigns).

Once all the vacancies in non-competitive seats are filled before the 2026 general election (and no one else resigns "early", which isn't really guaranteed the way things are going), the breakdown in the House will be 220 (R) - 215 (D)

If the GOP loses just 3 (R)s in those swing seats (and we maintain the current (D) seats), the GOP is toast in the House.