A new mortgage crisis is quietly hitting those who can least afford it
Source: Washington Post
According to New York Fed data, the 90-plus-day mortgage delinquency rate for families in the lowest-income bracket jumped from 0.5 percent in 2021 to nearly 3 percent by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, folks in the highest-income areas are doing just fine, maintaining historically lower delinquency rates.
When the Fed examined what might account for the disparities in mortgage performance, it concluded the job market could be a major contributor. Although the latest jobs report from the Labor Department shows some gains in January, the rebound was limited to just a few sectors, such as health care. Nationwide, unemployment is relatively low, but worsening regional labor markets are making it hard for people to keep up with their mortgage payments.
Two-thirds of counties have seen their local unemployment rates rise, and 5 percent of the population lives in counties where unemployment rates have risen by more than 1.6 percentage points, according to the New York Fed.
The number of job openings has trended down to 6.5 million, a decrease of nearly 1 million openings over the last year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month. If youre unemployed or looking to take on a second job, this data indicates there are fewer positions to apply for than there were a year ago, likely leading to more competition for the roles that remain.
Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/02/14/mortgage-problems-delinquencies/
But hey, the Dow hit 50,000! If you have to work for a living, that's your problem.
Fiendish Thingy
(22,532 posts)That was for all mortgages, not just those for low income households, but they were largely high risk mortgages for those with bad credit, something found more often in low income borrowers.
SunSeeker
(57,953 posts)But we have so many economic problems going on that this is just one alarm bell of many that the Trump administration is ignoring.
questionseverything
(11,690 posts)And people are using payday loans for groceries
CousinIT
(12,386 posts)...not the damn stock market.
Cheezoholic
(3,596 posts)Possibly twice as bad or more than the Great Depression. And it will be middle to upper middle class white collar jobs. I dont believe it will happen within 2 years as many are predicting but 5 to 10 is highly possible. Guaranteed minimum income may not be far off.
progree
(12,829 posts)Here's how the payroll jobs numbers looked before the new Feb 11 report
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
Non-farm payroll jobs, monthly changes in thousands
Year Jan Feb Mar etc. etc.
2022] 225 869 471 305 241 461 696 237 227 400 297 126
2023] 444 306 85 216 227 257 148 157 158 186 141 269
2024] 119 222 246 118 193 87 88 71 240 44 261 323
2025] 111 102 120 158 19 -13 72 -26 108 -173 56 50
Here's how it looks now:
(in thousands)
Year Jan Feb Mar etc. etc.
2022] 190 819 490 308 301 434 714 290 220 357 303 100
2023] 434 290 68 241 280 225 163 218 156 159 127 154
2024] 175 206 228 64 78 87 53 9 155 33 134 237
2025] -48 42 67 108 13 -20 64 -70 76 -140 41 48
and January 2026 is 130
Differences, in thousands (these are the revisions)
Year Jan Feb Mar etc. etc.
2022] -35 -50 19 3 60 -27 18 53 -7 -43 6 -26
2023] -10 -16 -17 25 53 -32 15 61 -2 -27 -14 -115
2024] 56 -16 -18 -54 -115 0 -35 -62 -85 -11 -127 -86
2025] -159 -60 -53 -50 -6 -7 -8 -44 -32 33 -15 -2
Annual Totals, in thousands
Year Before After Difference
2022] 4555 4526 -29
2023] 2594 2515 -79
2024] 2012 1459 -553
2025] 584 181 -403
2025 comes out to an average of 15k jobs/month. If you remove January, it is 21k/month. A barely above-the-waterline record.
And yet most media headlines are about a big surge in jobs in January. Yes, they cover the benchmark revisions in their articles, but it's the headlines that most people see and remember (and 130,000 jobs in a month is not much, but admittedly it is a "surge" compared to each and all of the dismal 2025 months).
Raftergirl
(1,831 posts)ck4829
(37,517 posts)Nothing quiet about it; it's you, the media, choosing to be quiet about it.
