IMF warns global economy could stall as Iran war disrupts oil flows

Source: Scripps News

Posted 10:16 AM, Apr 14, 202 and last updated 6:12 PM, Apr 14, 2026


The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has disrupted the global economy and could have deep and long‑lasting effects, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday.

The IMF projects global growth will slow to 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, assuming the conflict ends quickly. That would amount to a 0.3‑percentage‑point drop from the previous year. The impact could be much greater if the war drags on for months, the IMF cautioned.

“Should the conflict become more protracted than assumed in the reference forecast, or the resumption of production and transport activities take longer than assumed because of possible scarring from closing of or damage to energy infrastructure, the impact on growth would be larger,” the report said.

Under one scenario, global growth could slow to 2.5%. In a more severe scenario, growth could fall to 2%, putting the global economy at risk of recession. The IMF also noted that President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have sent additional shockwaves through the global economy.

Read more: https://www.scrippsnews.com/politics/economy/imf-warns-global-economy-could-stall-as-iran-war-disrupts-oil-flows