60 Minutes Reveals Insider Trading on US Military Conflicts Is Exploding: 'Luck Alone Can't Explain The Numbers'

Source: MEDIAite

May 17th, 2026, 8:19 pm


Prediction markets analysts told 60 Minutes Sunday that insider trading on U.S. military conflicts is exploding, and that the soldier accused of trading on the U.S. invasion of Venezuela was merely a small fish in a very large pond. Last month, Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke was indicted on federal charges for allegedly using information he had about the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro to rake in $400,000 on Polymarket.

“In the U.S. it’s prohibited to make military bets on platforms like Polymarket, though it’s easy to find digital workarounds as Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly did,” 60 Minutes correspondent Jon Wertheim said. “Here is what’s more astounding than the existence of military bets — how often they pay off.”

“It’s alarming to see a culture around betting on war,” said reporter Michelle Kendler-Kretsch at the anti-corruption data collective that examined Polymarket bets on military actions.

“She looked specifically at long-shot wagers, bets with less than 35% odds,” Wertheim said. “Despite being underdogs, they won more than they lost, a telltale sign, she says, of, quote, ‘systemic insider trading.” Kendler-Kretsch said that military bets on those long-shot wagers have a 52% success rate, while sports bets are at just 7%.

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