'Almost exactly offsetting the boost': Higher gasoline prices this year could wipe out tax refunds

(Fortune) In January, the White House celebrated what they claimed to be the “largest tax refund season in U.S. history,” promising hundreds of dollars more in refunds this tax year as a result of changes to the tax code, thanks to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

But economists warn those savings could go up in smoke—or rather exhaust, cancelled out completely by elevated gas prices as a result of the ongoing war in Iran.

An analysis led by economists at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research found that should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed for another three weeks and oil top out at $110 per barrel in March, gas would peak at $4.36 per gallon in May. As a result, the report found Americans would be paying on average $740 more for gas this year. The economists noted that extra spend would cancel out the $748 more in tax refunds projected for a typical household, according to the Tax Foundation.

Gas prices have surged more than 90 cents since Feb. 28, to $3.91 per gallon, when President Donald Trump initiated a major military operation against Iran, in a joint effort with Israeli forces. The ongoing strikes and counterattacks have resulted in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which more than 20% of the world’s oil supply is exported.

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/almost-exactly-offsetting-boost-higher-082700395.html