Republicans once saw Michigan as ripe for a takeover, but the mood is shifting

For years, Michigan Republicans had circled 2026 as their chance to regain power in the swing state where Democrats hold all statewide offices and both U.S. Senate seats. Now, doubts are creeping in.

Surging gas prices, an unpopular war in Iran and tariffs that have hit the state’s auto industry hard have all contributed to concerns about a worsening political environment for Michigan Republicans.

The latest warning sign came Tuesday, when a Democrat won a special election by almost 20 points in a state Senate district that Kamala Harris won by less than 1 point in 2024. The previous officeholder, a Democrat, carried the seat by 6 percentage points in 2022.

“To get to this margin in that kind of a district means that Democrats and independent voters are working in tandem to send a message to the Trump administration,” Michigan pollster Richard Czuba said of Tuesday's result.


https://www.michiganpublic.org/politics-government/2026-05-07/republicans-once-saw-michigan-as-ripe-for-a-takeover-but-the-mood-is-shifting