Western NY's 'positive rate' is up. But what does that tell us?

Epidemiologists, politicians and public health officials battling the Covid-19 pandemic track more than a dozen different metrics to gauge its spread. But in Western New York, one number has recently attracted particular attention – the “percentage positive” rate, or the share of the region’s Covid-19 tests that come back positive.

For the past nine days, Western New York’s rolling positive rate has strayed above 1%, the highest in the state. On Saturday, the state Department of Health deployed what Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo called a regional “SWAT team,” which will conduct free same-day Covid-19 tests at eight new sites in Erie, Niagara and Chautauqua counties.

Public health officials are particularly attentive to the positive rate because the metric is sensitive to early changes in transmission. An uptick in the positive rate often, though not always, precedes an increase in hospital and intensive-care unit admissions.

On Friday, 1.2% of Western New York’s Covid-19 tests came back positive, yielding a seven-day average of 1.49% – both higher than the daily statewide rate of .67%.

Read more: https://buffalonews.com/news/local/wnys-positive-rate-is-up-but-what-does-that-tell-us/article_a510db62-ea3f-11ea-927c-dbe869536cde.html