How did you come up with this?

Delgado is not strong, Richie Torres is likely to jump in the race and be endorsed by Cuomo, who hates Hochul and will be NYC mayor by then (he was endorsed by Torres). This causes the Dems to deplete their campaign funds in the Primary. Stefanik is loved by red rural upstate NY and Long Island and will be well-funded by the National Repub. party and out-of-state contributors. Unless Hochul steps aside, the Party will stand by her as the incumbent. Hochul is not popular in NYC. She barely squeaked by Lee Zeldin in the 2022 election. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/25/nyregion/hochul--governor-ny.html. Her handling of the migrant crisis was not appreciated (I’m being diplomatic).

Hochul may win 4/5 Burroughs of NYC, but not by large margins that historically have voted Dem. If she doesn’t perform in Long Island and Upstate, we could have Governor Stefanik.

As an aside, Cuomo politically would want a Repub Governor for his own political reasons — he would be the Dem leader in NY and better positioned to run for President in 2028, with a Repub foil who he can fight with. Remember the IDC coup Cuomo orchestrated as Gov to give the Repubs control of the NYS Senate?

If Hochul is the Dem nominee, the race is going to be much closer than last time. We didn’t think Trump could win again in 2024. Did anyone think Cuomo could rehabilitate himself and become NYC mayor. We need to stop burying our heads in the sand.

Governor Kathy Hochul will easily defeat Delgado (or Torres) in the Democratic Primary. She has done a good job as Governor and has support in all areas of the state. Delgado is not a bad guy but has a poor sense of timing as his being soundly defeated will likely end his once promising political career. While the election is still a long way off, I would doubt that he would even be able to gather the thousands of signatures he would need to quality for the primary ballot (and little or no change of winning the required 25% of the State Democratic Committee vote to qualify without the signatures).

As to the General election, no Republican has won a statewide election since (relatively moderate) George Pataki back in 2002. Zeldin did a little better than the previous turkeys (Palladino and Astorino) but with the dark shadow cast by the Trump administration the GOP will be soundly defeated in NY. Stefanik is not widely known in the two critical Long Island counties (Nassau and Suffolk). Lawler similarly would have very little chance of winning the Governor's Mansion.

I am surprised that Nassau County Executive Blakeman has fared so poorly in the early polls as the Nassau GOP is the strongest Republican "machine" left standing in N Y. Yes, Staten Island (Richmond County) has become more Republican but they are the smallest Borough of NYC. Most of the eastern half of Upstate has become more Democratic over the past few elections, even Saratoga County which has long been a GOP stronghold.

Stefanik could probably easily hold her gerrymandered Congressional District and would best advised to stay in the House. Lawler could easily lose his seat. Blakeman would not need to leave his seat and could run as a sacrificial lamb.