The Tennessee House and Senate races potentially in play

Tennessee could see 16 competitive state House and Senate races this fall, based on past state elections in similar political environments, according to an analysis by the Lookout of the nonpartisan Dave’s Redistricting election data.

Nationally, the Democratic Party is expected to have a strong 2026 midterm election, but the question remains how strong and whether that translates to Tennessee, a state Republicans have dominated for almost two decades.

Republicans control the state House 75 to 24 seats and the state Senate 27 to 6.

The 2026 midterm political environment is most similar to a 2025 special election for a Middle Tennessee U.S. House seat and the 2018 Tennessee Senate race. In both elections, Republicans controlled the White House, and the President’s approval rating was around 40%.



https://tennesseelookout.com/2026/02/17/election-2026-the-tennessee-house-and-senate-races-potentially-in-play/