Democrats need to have 54 US Senate seats after 2022 to overcome losses in-

AZ(Sinema-D) and WV(Manchin-D) and make sure Democrats remain in the majority after 2024.

In 2024, Democrats are going to hold onto-
1)CA(Feinstein-D or Breed-D)
2)CT(Murphy-D)
3)DE(Carper-D or Blunt Rochester-D)
4)HI(Hirono-D or Gabbard-D)
5)ME(King-I/D or Golden-D)
6)MD(Cardin-D or J. Sarbanes-D)
7)MA(Warren-D)
8)MI(Stabenow-D)
9)MN(Klobuchar-D)
10)NV(Rosen-D)
11)NJ(Menendez-D)
12)NM(Heinrich-D)
13)NY(Gillibrand-D)
14)PA(Casey-D)
15)RI(Whitehouse-D)
16)VT(Sanders-I/D or Donovan-D)
17)VA(Kaine-D)
18)WA(Cantwell-D)
19)WI(Baldwin-D)
Democrats have a 50 percent chance of winning-
AZ(Sinema-D) Democrats need to make a top tier Democrat challenges and defeats Sinema-D in the Democratic Primary. Former Phoenix Mayor and current 9th AZ US Representative Greg Stanton-D.
MT(Tester-D) has narrowly defeated top tier Republican challengers in 2012(Rehberg-R) and 2018(Rosendale-R).
OH(Brown-D) has won re-election in 2012 and 2018 by a 6 percent margin.
WV(Manchin-D) is a lost cause.
Democrats need to have a top tier candidate to challenge and defeat Sinema-D in the Democratic primary- Greg Stanton- former Phoenix mayor and current AZ-9th CD US Representative.
MT(Tester-D) and OH(Brown-D) will get re-elected by a narrow margin.
In 2022 Democrats need to win-
37)VT(Leahy-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)NY(Schumer-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)WA(Murray-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
48)NH(Hassan-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)NC(Jackson-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)