if the numbers are accurate.

measures.
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

In this case, the unexpectantly is bad for the regime's case but the reflex is to distrust it just because. IF, big if, those numbers are cooked, why would the regime cook them against themselves.

Relax. Paranoia is sometimes justified, but not in this case.

which is what Krasnov has been saying all along - that prices are going down.

And the BLS's favored core measure is down 0.1% in April.

Unless the main ppi's drop of 0.5% is so large that one might be worried its a symptom of recession...

Speaking of which, also just out at 8:30 AM ET:

Retail sales slow sharply in April as pre-tariff spending burst reverses
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-sales-slow-sharply-in-april-as-pre-tariff-spending-burst-reverses-123408102.html

Unemployment insurance claims out too: (AI overview, yeah, I'm being lazy)

These are Producer Prices, which are a step removed from Consumer Prices. Consumer prices are more directly affected by tariff taxes.

It may mean distributors and wholesalers and retailers may not be ordering as much, driving US production down. Or production is steady but inventories are building up and prices being lowered to try to move it. The Great Depression was triggered by overproduction (esp agricultural). Also don't forget that US exports are under pressure due to reciprocal tariffs.

He said there will be a rush to stock up inventories.

I got a sense that any such rush would be less than the 30 % dropoff.

Plus the 145% tariff taxes are not erased. Just paused. tRump's big announcement from Geneva was a commitment to talk. No real change in rules or practices.

for China's alleged role in fentanyl production. That's from several articles.

Though 30% is still a lot. And yes, it is only a temporary reprieve.

Chinese ships take time to sail to the US and I think it was around May 10th that the last 30% tariffed ship arrived here. Most of the 145% tariffed Chinese ships never left China.

Last edited Thu May 15, 2025, 10:44 AM - Edit history (2)

This is a month-by-month graph I made in March when the February numbers came out.

from: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143416825#post6
which also shows the core PPI (ex food, energy, and trade services) graphs.

I note also that April's core PPI (ex food and energy) is +0.4%, and that the Federal Reserve is much more focused on core measures than the "everything" headline measure. Edit: Correction: MINUS 0.4%, thanks Bernardo. 0.4% is a worrisome drop for one month, especially since the less food & energy core is considerably less volatile than the regular PPi number. On the other hand, the core measure that the BLS highlights: the one ex food, energy, and trade services, is down a considerably less precipitous 0.1%. Trade services is very volatile month-to-month which is why the BLS (and presumably the Fed) prefers a core measure without it.

to cut interest rates. Krasnov wants a weak dollar, wants strong Crypto so he personally makes more money.

Yeah, terrible of me believing that someone like Krasnov would cook the books. I also think he cooked the latest CPI numbers.

I don't know shit about the economy but I know a lot about Krasnov.