ECONOMY
With June jobs report looming, DOGE government layoffs could start becoming a factor

PUBLISHED WED, JUL 2 20253:41 PM EDT | UPDATED 45 MIN AGO

Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM

KEY POINTS
• While the impact from the DOGE layoffs has been fairly muted so far in relation to total job growth, recent trends show that’s about to change.
• Applications from workers at federal agencies have soared by 150%, a trend that has been particularly acute at knowledge-work jobs such as data analytics, marketing and software development.
• The BLS releases the June nonfarm payrolls count Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect to see growth of just 115,000.

For federal government workers who worked at agencies tied to this year’s job cuts, an apparent slowdown in the labor market is happening at the worst possible time. ... A gradual pullback in hiring and job openings has come at the same time that hundreds of thousands of federal workers are out looking for employment, the casualty of layoffs recommended by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.

Although economists almost universally downplay it, one straw in the wind may have come Wednesday, when payrolls processor ADP said private sector hiring in June unexpectedly contracted by 33,000 jobs, far lower than economists’ estimate of 100,000. ... And while the impact from the DOGE layoffs has been fairly muted so far in relation to total job growth, recent trends show that’s about to change, according to data from the Indeed Hiring Lab.

Weak white collar demand

“There are still a lot of questions about how that’s all going to trickle into the labor market. A lot of people are out there looking for work from the federal government,” Indeed senior economist Cory Stahle said. “The big question is whether or not they’re going to be able to find them given the weaker demand for the higher education, white-collar jobs now.” ,,, From January through April of this year, the number of job openings fell by 5% while the hiring rate has hovered around levels last seen in 2014, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

At the same time, Indeed said it has seen applications from workers at federal agencies soar by 150%, a trend that has been particularly acute at knowledge-work jobs such as data analytics, marketing and software development. While May provided some hope, with applications dipping by 4%, there are still signs that the DOGE efforts are having an impact on the broader labor picture. ... “Demand coming from employers has really pulled back a lot more for these white-collar jobs than it has for many of other kind of in-person skilled labor roles,” Stahle said. “So that’s a real big challenge for anybody entering the labor market right now.”

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