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July jobs report expected to show hiring slowed while unemployment rate ticked higher

Josh Schafer • Reporter
Updated Fri, August 1, 2025 at 2:02 AM EDT 3 min read

The July jobs report is expected to show hiring slowed during the month while the unemployment rate moved higher. The data's release will come as investors closely watch for any further signs of slowing in the US labor market amid growing debate over when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics data is slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 105,000 in July and the unemployment rate to have moved up to 4.2%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

In June, the US economy added 147,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.

Here are the key numbers Wall Street is expecting Friday, according to data from Bloomberg:

• Nonfarm payrolls: +105,000 vs. +147,000 in June
• Unemployment rate: 4.2% vs. 4.1%
• Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.2%
• Average hourly earnings, year over year: +3.8% vs. +3.7%
• Average weekly hours worked: 34.2 vs. 34.2

"In our view, the labor market is moderating rather than deteriorating," BofA US economist Shruti Mishra wrote in a note to clients. "Elevated inflation should still keep the Fed on hold."

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