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Economy

mahatmakanejeeves

(66,375 posts) Sat Aug 16, 2025, 10:15 AM Aug 16

Millions Of American Workers Just Appeared. Why That Might Be A Mirage

White House says jobs surging among U.S.-born. Here’s what economists say.

A quirk in survey calculations is muddying the data on just how immigration policies are upending the labor market.

1 minute ago
9 min

A now hiring sign displayed at a retail store in Vernon Hills, Illinois, on Aug. 7. (Nam Y. Huh/AP)

By Abha Bhattarai

The Trump administration has railed against government data, casting doubt on monthly jobs figures and calling for an overhaul of GDP calculations. But there’s one number White House officials are happy to tout: 2 million new jobs this year for workers born in the United States, referred to as “native-born” among statisticians.

{snip}

Millions Of American Workers Just Appeared. Why That Might Be A Mirage

By DICCON HYATT Published August 15, 2025 12:52 PM EDT

{snip picture}
There are suddenly many more native-born U.S. workers. But why?.
Heather Diehl / The Boston Globe via Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a large increase in the number of native-born U.S. workers, and a decrease in those who are foreign-born.
• White House officials pointed to the data as vindicating President Donald Trump's "America First" economic policies.
• Economists said the shift was more likely related to statistical quirks and did not represent genuine gains for U.S.-born workers.

Since President Donald Trump took office, data shows native-born Americans have gained millions of jobs, while foreign-born workers have lost them. Is the shift a vindication of the president's "America First" policies, or just a statistical mirage?

Since January, the U.S. economy has added nearly 2.5 million native-born workers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (1)

At the same time, the foreign-born workforce has shrunk by 1 million. (2)

There are at least three competing explanations for why this has happened.

{snip}

5 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Millions Of American Workers Just Appeared. Why That Might Be A Mirage (Original Post) mahatmakanejeeves Aug 16 OP

Native-born? These un-American assholes. That was never even a thing before Trump Walleye Aug 16 #1

"might be a mirage": Gee, might it? They just can't stop peddling bullshit. Scrivener7 Aug 16 #2

For some reason they downplay that foreign born survey takers might be saying they are native born progree Aug 16 #3

I guarantee you that lots of investors, etc., investing in the Economy vs. stocks, real estate, etc. are going to SWBTATTReg Aug 16 #4

"Figures markodochartaigh Aug 16 #5

Walleye

(42,023 posts)

1. Native-born? These un-American assholes. That was never even a thing before Trump

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Sat Aug 16, 2025, 10:18 AM

Aug 16

Why would anyone think that someone born here is more entitled to earn a living than someone born in a foreign country maga sucks. And how is being born here, some sort of virtue to be rewarded?

Scrivener7

(56,820 posts)

2. "might be a mirage": Gee, might it? They just can't stop peddling bullshit.

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Sat Aug 16, 2025, 11:46 AM

Aug 16

progree

(12,240 posts)

3. For some reason they downplay that foreign born survey takers might be saying they are native born

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Sat Aug 16, 2025, 11:52 AM

Aug 16

or just not taking the survey.

Since January, the U.S. economy has added nearly 2.5 million native-born workers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

At the same time, the foreign-born workforce has shrunk by 1 million.

. . . the BLS figures are compiled from household surveys.

. . ."Where did we find 3 million more people born 16 or more years ago in the United States in just seven months?" Pingle wrote in a commentary. "Overall population growth in that time has been only 1.1 million. Clearly, creating people out of thin air or giving birth to 16-year-olds is implausible."

Pingle theorized that some people surveyed by the BLS have changed their self-reported status to native-born from foreign-born. That could be an understandable shift amid Trump's immigration crackdown.

They leave this out of their key takeaways and in the final paragraph of the article. If I was foreign-born and wasn't oblivious to the news, I would either opt not to take the survey or say I was not foreign-born. I mean, with all I read about Latino communities being almost ghost towns as far as people out-and-about on the streets for fear of being ICE'd, to believe they would tell a surveyor that they were foreign-born in anywhere near the same proportions as before all this is literally ludicrous.

That said, I'm not sure where Pingle gets his 3 million. But there is a difference between those counted as part of the workforce (which is the employed plus the jobless who have looked for work sometime in the last 4 weeks), and the total age 16+ population, which includes tens of millions (edit: actually 103.4 million /edit) who are not employed and not looking.

Not In Labor Force, age 16+: 103,443,000 https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

SWBTATTReg

(25,604 posts)

4. I guarantee you that lots of investors, etc., investing in the Economy vs. stocks, real estate, etc. are going to

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Sat Aug 16, 2025, 12:38 PM

Aug 16

start ignoring all things tRUMP has touched, that have any stats or such that supposedly measure Economic Activity.

This will lead to less consumer confidence and more investor confusion as to whether to invest in the Economy or not. Investment will go down. Key measurement indicators will go down (or up depending upon the matrix that they are measuring).

The markets are still stubbornly high, but I kind of think that even this will turn around and go down. There are already signs of the tRUMP depression / recession hitting areas of the Economy already and we'll start seeing more and more indicators of this slowdown despite tRUMP and cronies efforts to hide them. Won't work as indicators often work in tandem w/ many other related indicators.

As for investors on DU, take some money/gains off the table, start saving for a rainy day, might get a golden opportunity to further invest in this already sky-high stock market, soon to be depressed even more real estate markets.

markodochartaigh

(3,698 posts)

5. "Figures

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Sat Aug 16, 2025, 12:47 PM

Aug 16

often beguile me," Twain wrote, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"

Chapters from My Autobiography, Mark Twain, 1907

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