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progree

(12,275 posts)
Thu Sep 4, 2025, 09:14 PM Thursday

US Jobless Claims Rise To Highest Levels Since June

This discussion thread is pinned.

Thursday 9/4/25
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-jobless-claims-rise-to-highest-levels-since-june/ar-AA1LSvEB

Weekly jobless claims rose to the highest levels since June, surpassing Wall Street estimates and pointing to weakness in the labor market amid President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff war.

According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 237,000 in the week ended August 30. This was higher than an estimate of 230,000, according to Bloomberg.

The four-week moving average for jobless claims, which smooths weekly volatility, rose by 2,500 to 231,000.

Continuing claims, which refer to the number of people claiming unemployment benefits beyond the first week, hovered in the 1.94 million range, declining marginally by 4,000 over the previous week.

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From the source - a good one to look at for the graphs, particularly how continuing claims (what DOL calls insured unemployment) has been on a long-run rise (though last week was a slight downturn)
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
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US Jobless Claims Rise To Highest Levels Since June (Original Post) progree Thursday OP
SP500 dropped like a rock. Opened up 0.40%, held 20 minutes, since has swung down a total of more than 1.0% Bernardo de La Paz Friday #1
Rate cut progree Friday #2

Bernardo de La Paz

(57,992 posts)
1. SP500 dropped like a rock. Opened up 0.40%, held 20 minutes, since has swung down a total of more than 1.0%
Fri Sep 5, 2025, 10:44 AM
Friday

Now down about 0.60% from yesterday's close.

Big swing.

Was a September rate cut (now 100% of the experts are expecting one) already priced in and the economic data frightening investors more?

progree

(12,275 posts)
2. Rate cut
Fri Sep 5, 2025, 03:50 PM
Friday
Was a September rate cut (now 100% of the experts are expecting one) already priced in and the economic data frightening investors more?


https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Since yesterday, the traders' expectation of a HALF POINT rate cut has increased from 0% to 10.2%

Before the 9/17 Fed rate decision, there will still be the producer price index, the consumer price index, consumer sentiment, and retail sales reports coming out, so things can change
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

At the moment, S&P 500 off 0.40% from yesterday's close.
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