Opinion
Round Table

What if Labor Becomes Unnecessary?

Feb. 4, 2026


A collage featuring images of a construction crane and a factory floor.
Illustration by The New York Times


By David Autor, Anton Korinek and Natasha Sarin

David Autor is a professor at M.I.T. Anton Korinek is a professor at the University of Virginia. Natasha Sarin is the president of the Budget Lab at Yale.

David Leonhardt, an Opinion editorial director, hosted an online conversation with three economists about the effects that artificial intelligence is — or isn’t — already having on employment and about how big a transition society is facing.

David Leonhardt: Before we look toward the future, let’s talk about the present. I know there is debate among economists about whether A.I. has already led to a meaningful amount of job loss. What do you each think?

David Autor: The evidence is inconclusive. The most widely discussed findings document a slower pace of hiring of young workers in occupations that seem exposed to A.I., such as computer programming and customer support. But the hiring downturn starts in the spring of 2022, before the release of ChatGPT in November of 2022. The timing is a puzzle.

Something that did occur simultaneously with the downturn is a sharp rise in the Federal Reserve’s fund rates. This is a plausible explanation for the slowdown. Other recent economic turbulence — including tariffs — may also play a role. Indeed, hiring in these same A.I.-exposed occupations has been sensitive to business cycles and interest rates going back well before the current A.I. era. A.I. may play a role in the recent hiring trends, but it’s quite possible that it does not.

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David Autor is a professor of economics at M.I.T. and a faculty co-director of the Stone Center on Inequality and Shaping the Future of Work.

Anton Korinek is a professor of economics at the University of Virginia and faculty director of the Economics of Transformative AI Initiative.

Natasha Sarin is a professor at Yale Law School, a co-founder of the Budget Lab at Yale and a former Treasury Department official.

Source photographs by KIM JAE-HWAN and AFP via Getty Images.