Economy

mahatmakanejeeves

(69,263 posts) Thu Mar 5, 2026, 11:15 AM Thursday

What to expect in Friday's jobs report

What to expect in Friday’s jobs report

By Alicia Wallace
Updated 1 hr 28 min ago
Updated Mar 5, 2026, 8:39 AM ET
PUBLISHED Mar 5, 2026, 7:34 AM ET

Economic uncertainty tied to President Donald Trump’s signature trade policies has led many small businesses to lay off workers, delay expansion plans or scale back production.

ValenSil Technologies, for one, was growing at a pretty good clip heading into 2025. ... The Avon, Ohio-based aerosol filler expanded its manufacturing footprint, added a second shift and ramped up its workforce to 47 people, a near-tripling. ... At the rate business was humming along, ValenSil was on track to bolt on a third shift, add about eight to 15 more workers, and even purchase land for further expansion.

However, not only were those plans quickly moved to the backburner, but the second shift was cut and the workforce was whittled down – not by layoffs, but via attrition. ... Jim O’Connor, ValenSil’s buyer and hiring manager, attributed the production drop-off to the steep tariffs on inputs like aluminum and the heavily unpredictable nature of how they’ve been implemented. High uncertainty had stifled demand among the contract manufacturer’s clients, he said.

Empty aerosol cans at ValenSil Technologies' facility in Avon, Ohio (Courtesy Jim O’Connor)

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What to expect in Friday's jobs report (Original Post) mahatmakanejeeves Thursday OP

Definitily worth the read.. A few bits that stuck out most for me: progree Thursday #1

progree

(12,895 posts)

1. Definitily worth the read.. A few bits that stuck out most for me:

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Thu Mar 5, 2026, 06:30 PM

Thursday

Economists expect that US employers added 60,000 jobs last month, which would be a sharp cooldown from January’s estimated 130,000 jobs added. January’s stronger-than-expected total was likely buoyed by some one-time factors (notably, weaker holiday hiring that meant fewer post-holiday layoffs, and unseasonably warm weather in the early part of the month that boosted industries like construction).

. . .

First, on the payroll side, the month’s estimated job gains are expected to be distorted due to the roughly 31,000 health care workers on strike during the week that businesses were surveyed for the report. The strike ended on February 23, so the “loss” of jobs will be reversed and reflected as a “gain” in March’s jobs report.

. . .

Third, February’s report will include some annual revisions that were postponed due to the historic government shutdown this past fall

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Wow on the last paragraph. Remember that the downward revisions announced in the January report (and data series modified accordingly) totaled about 1 million. And we're going to see some more? 2025 was revised downward from 584k to 181k. There isn't much left in 2025 to be revised downward without going underwater for the year.

January report --
LBN Thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143614651

The before and after the big jobs revisions, month by month:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3615236

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