What to Expect from the February Jobs Report

The February jobs report will be released Friday morning. Here's what economists expect the data to show.

By Karee Venema
published yesterday in Features

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What to expect in the February jobs report

"Last month's employment report delivered an unexpected upside surprise, even though the underlying details pointed to a labor market that is gradually losing momentum, reinforcing the mixed signals we continue to see across labor‑market indicators. At the same time, recent history has shown that initial BLS estimates can be materially revised. As we approach this week's release, these factors heighten the importance of monitoring not just the headline print but also the revision pattern itself. In a data environment where top‑line strength can mask cooler underlying dynamics � and where subsequent revisions frequently alter the story � the durability of labor‑market momentum may only become clear once the full set of adjustments is in hand." � Shari Hensrud, Chief Investment Officer at MissionSquare

"We forecast a below-consensus February nonfarm payrolls print of 35,000. We have marked down our prior 65,000 NFP forecast following Friday's CES Strike Report, which showed a major strike at Kaiser Permanente during the February survey week. The unemployment rate should remain at 4.3%, with some risk of rising to 4.4%." � Shruti Mishra, U.S. Economist at BofA Securities

"We expect the February employment report to show that January's robust pace of job growth overstated underlying momentum in the labor market. While some stabilization in labor demand is evident, a range of indicators, including JOLTS and consumers' perception of job availability, continue to point to a gradual loosening in labor market conditions rather than a renewed acceleration in hiring." � Wells Fargo economists

"We estimate that nonfarm payroll employment rose just 25,000 in February, substantially slower than the gain in January. The slowdown would be driven by a partial unwinding of January's surprising upswing in the birth​-​death adjustment for the health care and social services industry, which accounted for nearly all of the prior month's job gain. Likewise, we expect private nonfarm payroll employment to have also increased 25,000 in February, slower than the gains seen in both December and January." � Marc Giannoni, Chief U.S. Economist at Deutsche Bank.

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Karee Venema
Senior Investing Editor, Kiplinger.com
With over a decade of experience writing about the stock market, Karee Venema is the senior investing editor at Kiplinger.com. She joined the publication in April 2021 after 10 years of working as an investing writer and columnist at a local investment research firm. In her previous role, Karee focused primarily on options trading, as well as technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis.