Economy

The February jobs numbers are coming out Friday. Here's what to expect

Published Thu, Mar 5 2026 1:48 PM EST
Updated Thu, Mar 5 2026 2:49 PM EST
Jeff Cox
@JeffCoxCNBCcom
@jeff.cox.7528

KEY POINTS
� The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February nonfarm payrolls report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect growth of 50,000 and a stable unemployment rate at 4.3%.
� The jobs picture continues to be of a low-hire low-fire climate, where companies are both reticent to lay off employees as demand continues to be strong, but also are leery of adding staff.
� However, the so-called stability may not be all it appears. Most of the payroll gains in 2025 came from health care-related industries, and that continued to be the case in January.

The 2025 labor market has been generously described as "unstable," with virtually no jobs growth and a slew of headwinds expected to conspire against it. In 2026, though, the buzzword seems to be "stable," even though conditions seem to be largely the same.

The picture continues to be of a low-hire, low-fire climate, where companies are both reticent to lay off employees as demand continues to be strong, but also are leery of adding staff amid uncertainty over tariffs, inflation and geopolitics.

However, characterizations coming from Federal Reserve officials and market economists have grown at least a bit more optimistic � stressing the stability, if not the robustness, of the labor market. ... The difference between this year and last? Expectations.

A prevailing belief is that with the clampdown on immigration and other factors holding back labor pool growth, a subdued hiring rate is fine � at least for now � and the current pace of job growth is adequate and even expected.

{snip}