Economy
Related: About this forumIs There Any Sane Reason Why the Market has Not Fallen 10%+ ?
Even if this war stopped today the damage is done. Tankers on fire. Ports damaged. No mines laid (apparently) but the way shipping was handled and not considered has to drive costs up for the foreseable future.
"Buy the rumor, Sell the war" is the maxim so where is the selling?
It looks like retail investors are slow to react or maybe they believe a TACO this weekend will undo it all (?) It won't. Many are buying the dips: March WSJ "Fresh Shocks, Same Strategy: Unfazed Retail Investors Keep Hitting Buy
Institutional investors seem likewise slow to accept just how badly this is going and that none of the potential outcomes from here are good.
Lifting Russian sanctions and dumping the strategic reserve was a blip. Oil is at $95 now even as some buyers try to wait it out.
Gold and other hard assets seem like the safest play.
Nicotine is doing well -- MO and PM as usual. MO pays 8% qualified dividend and almost always hedges these dips
But don't consider any of this as advice because I really don't know why the market isn't lower every day?!
UpInArms
(54,842 posts)Colloquially known as the plunge protection team (PPT)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets
As established by the executive order, the Working Group has three purposes and functions:
"
(1) the major issues raised by the numerous studies on the events in the financial markets surrounding October 19, 1987, and any of those recommendations that have the potential to achieve the goals noted above; and
(2) the actions, including governmental actions under existing laws and regulations (such as policy coordination and contingency planning), that are appropriate to carry out these recommendations.
(b) The Working Group shall consult, as appropriate, with representatives of the various exchanges, clearinghouses, self-regulatory bodies, and with major market participants to determine private sector solutions wherever possible.
(c) The Working Group shall report to the President initially within 60 days (and periodically thereafter) on its progress and, if appropriate, its views on any recommended legislative changes."[1]
The Working Group consists of:
The Secretary of the Treasury, or his or her designee (as Chairperson of the Working Group);
The Chairperson of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or his or her designee;
The Chairperson of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or his or her designee; and
The Chairperson of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or his or her designee.
GreatGazoo
(4,565 posts)almost exactly 6 years ago when the markets were crashing as the ramifications of Covid lockdowns became better understood.
The Fed can print funds and buy assets but that is a short term bailout of the rich. Longterm it is devaluation of the USD and inflation as we have seen.
UpInArms
(54,842 posts)tells its own tale
https://www.cnn.com/markets#bonds-and-rates
The repo (repurchase market) is a story all on its own
It is how the get the liquidity to do some of it
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1TqiC
NCDem47
(3,430 posts)Not that Im rooting for it. Investor here.
If the markets were looking for the bubble to pop, well, here it is. Lets get it it over with.
But this is Trump. If it were a Dem President the markets would show no mercy.
As an aside, Ive lost all the January and February gains and Im below where I was on Dec. 31.
GreatGazoo
(4,565 posts)Hard to see how gold is not higher at the end of the year. Seems like the safest play.
I have held MO since 2021. Up 50% plus paying 8% qualified divs. An old school Bear stock. Wish I had bought more but it was new to me in 2021. I'm either flat or down a little YTD.
This guy is always very level headed (despite what the thumbnail looks like and says) and he spooked me yesterday. I have never seen him this down and with this much to say. Have never before heard him urge the White House to get some experts involved. This has 370K views in 18 hours so I'm not the only one paying attention:
gab13by13
(32,058 posts)WSHazel
(741 posts)Trump could stop the war this afternoon, or tomorrow, or whenever. I believe negotiations are already underway and the only question is how much it will cost to buy Trump off.
Black Rock thinks this will be short term.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/larry-fink-says-oil-could-113020227.html
gab13by13
(32,058 posts)Negotiations? Want to know what Khamenei's 1st demand is? The US and Israel pledge to never attack Iran again.
Krasnov cannot stop this war, he can surrender and pull out. One doesn't kill the supreme leader and his family, bomb a girls' school and then declare the war is over.
An eye for an eye must happen before Iran agrees that the war is over.
WSHazel
(741 posts)They wont make bad investment decisions based on party philosophy.
Iran could probably end the war today if it promised to pay Trump $5 billion a year. Why slug it out with the American military if Trump can be purchased that cheap?
GreatGazoo
(4,565 posts)Rumors are that Trump wants to stop and Iran isn't having it. Iran stopped when asked in the June war and all it got them was a bigger attack. Iran is asking for "reparations" meaning they, not the USA, are setting terms for ending this. Iran likely would not be offering conditions publicly if they were not answering to requests for ceasefire:
https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-tehran-demands-reparations-to-end-conflict/live-76297820
And, Yes TACO but right now it looks like there is no pause button.
BlackRock and Fink are the opponent of retail investors and doing poorly right now. They limited withdrawals last week which suggests they are not well positioned for this war. Wouldn't trust a word out of Fink's mouth anymore than I would trust anyone on Fox News. Seems like the usual bit of telling everyone else to stay calm while the rich run to last lifeboats.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/blackrock-shares-tumble-over-7-after-firm-limits-withdrawals-from-private-credit-fund/ar-AA1XGHAK
WSHazel
(741 posts)Many private credit funds have limited withdrawals. It is a sign of a declining economy, but Black Rock is not any worse off than the rest.
Fink may be wrong, but he is not alone in thinking Trump will crumble.
Never overestimate the bravery of a coward, and Trump is definitely a coward.
Fiendish Thingy
(22,960 posts)A balanced, diversified portfolio is the best formula for weathering this storm.
There may be losses across the board, but balanced and diverse holdings will lose less and recover quicker than the major indices.
gab13by13
(32,058 posts)A record number of people are withdrawing money from their 401k's because of "hardship." I am pretty sure those people didn't want to withdraw that money.
Fiendish Thingy
(22,960 posts)Yes, the Trump economy is causing widespread suffering, which will work to our favour in November.
And maintaining a balanced and diversified portfolio isnt my strategy, it is the strategy of most honest and competent financial advisors.
Our portfolio weathered the crashes of 1987, 2001, 2008, and COVID. We didnt panic and move everything to cash or gold- we stayed invested, losing less (30% vs 50% in 2008) and recovered the losses quicker than the Dow and S&P did, and went on to make significant gains in the years following the crashes.
Just before Trump started his war, In one of my accounts, I did shift a modest amount from US large and mid cap stocks into international (mostly European) funds which have been outperforming American stock indices by 200-300% over the past year.
Our portfolio continues to be a significant component of our current retirement income.
GreatGazoo
(4,565 posts)They limited private credit withdrawals last week which suggests that their whales are trying to get out and/or Blackrock is over-leveraged.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/blackrock-shares-tumble-over-7-after-firm-limits-withdrawals-from-private-credit-fund/ar-AA1XGHAK
GreatGazoo
(4,565 posts)It took 8 years for markets to recover from the oil embargo and that was only a 7% reduction in oil flows. This is 20% and looking like a realignment of the ME.
Way more downside risk than upside potential right now so I disagree but sincerely appreciate your perspective. Stop loss served me very well last February. Bought it all back lower.
Fiendish Thingy
(22,960 posts)Nothing is certain, and volatility is to be expected with this president.
This situation isnt black or white, Pollyanna vs. Debbie Downer
EYESORE 9001
(29,660 posts)Dont look down. Reality hits hard.