Retail
How the Iran war could start to impact U.S. retail prices

PUBLISHED FRI, MAR 13 2026 11:30 AM EDT UPDATED AN HOUR AGO

Laya Neelakandan
@IN/LAYANEELAKANDAN
@LAYA_NEEL

KEY POINTS
• The retail industry could soon be taking the next hit from the Iran war’s disruption to the global supply chain.
• Experts and analysts say the exact impacts are too early to determine, but the Strait of Hormuz closure could mean higher prices on the shelves for consumers.
• The conflict is also affecting consumer confidence, adding to the strain from higher gas prices.


The Liberia-flagged tanker Shenlong Suezmax, loaded with Saudi Arabian crude, arrives at a port after transiting the Strait of Hormuz amid supply disruptions linked to the U.S-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Mumbai, India, March 12, 2026.
Francis Mascarenhas | Reuters

The Iran war could soon mean higher prices on store shelves for consumers. ... Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz passage has significantly disrupted the global supply chain, affecting goods from fertilizers to metals to gas and fuel. The passage is a critical point, funneling tens of millions of barrels of oil daily along with other exports as one of the world’s most important shipping routes.

And the tensions with the strait are showing no signs of changing. On Thursday, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said the closure should be continued as a “tool to pressure the enemy” in his first public statement since being appointed. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Friday downplayed concerns about the strait, saying at a Pentagon press briefing, “We have been dealing with it, and don’t need to worry about it.”

In a Friday statement, logistics provider C.H. Robinson said it’s continuing to monitor updates and urged shippers to plan for continued variability. ... “While cargo is moving, carriers are managing constrained capacity, selective acceptance, and fuel‑related cost impacts, resulting in pricing volatility and variable service conditions,” the statement read.

Though it’s still early to determine what the exact impact on retail may be, Coresight Research President Max Kahn said the disruption to the global supply chain may already be pushing the industry near its limits.

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