Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumClimate Scientist James Hansen on, um, Religion.
Let me preface this by remarking that I am personally an atheist and have a low opinion of cult thinking, although as is ethically required, I respect the right to have a religion, with the caveat that religious people do not have the right to harm other people, which is what the religion to which Hansen refers does. It definitely harms people, killing them actually, since fossil fuel use, um, kills people.
Interestingly, there is some cultists who seem to have a religion about Jim Hansen, as we can see here at E&E, while holding no respect for his views on energy, none at all.
Now, let me be clear on something: This argument, "James Hansen says..." is possibly an example of the logical fallacy called "appeal to authority," which, as described in the link just posted as:
Of course, Dr. Hansen, is not a nuclear engineer, and thus might be considered a "false authority," on nuclear issues, although he has offered in a paper that antinukes and "I'm not an antinuke" antinukes ignore, that I frequently post, that offers supporting data on the death toll associated with antinukism, as evidence for his support for nuclear energy:
Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power (Pushker A. Kharecha* and James E. Hansen Environ. Sci. Technol., 2013, 47 (9), pp 48894895)
It's an old paper, pushing 13 years, during which fossil fuels killed, at the rate of 7 million per year from air pollution according to another source I frequently link: Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 19902019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (Lancet Volume 396, Issue 10258, 1723 October 2020, Pages 1223-1249).
Based on the Lancet data, antinukism - which is nothing more than support for fossil fuels - killed about 91 million people since Hansen's paper was published. Hansen now gives a much higher figure for the hourly death rate associated with fossil fuels than the Lancet paper indicates, although he adds water pollution, but whether he has support for that, I'm not sure. He may have misspoke since he is making an oral argument without data before him.
For the record killing 91 million people is the equivalent of killing everyone in that coal dependent antinuke hellhole Germany, and then some.
As for an "Appeal to Authority" claim, it is quite possible, likely, that Hansen doesn't know as much about nuclear engineering as say, I do from years of private study of the issue, or my son, who is a nuclear engineer, does, nor my son's girlfriend, also a nuclear engineer, does, but as someone who does know a great deal about nuclear engineering with a focus on nuclear chemistry, I fully credit his remarks that antinukism is a cult that kills people, even if his numbers in the interview may be off significantly.
The quote comes with a video, which I have not had time to watch, but if one wishes to watch the video, it's at the link.
The link is here: The Green Interview, James Hansen
The quote from the text at the link on nuclear power:
Hansen says that currently the world is getting about 85 percent of its energy from fossil fuels and that putting a price on carbon would allow clean energy alternatives to compete. He argues that nuclear power should be part of the mix that replaces fossil fuels, but he says the anti-nuclear power lobby, a quasi-religion that opposes nuclear power, does not have a command of the facts. Nuclear power has been extremely beneficial in limiting impacts on human health and deaths. For example, the total number of people killed by nuclear power in the history of nuclear power is less than the number of people killed by fossil fuels in the time thats its taking for this interview. In one hour more than 10,000 people die from the effects of fossil fuel pollution, air pollution and water pollution. Hansen believes that nuclear power could potentially be a significant contributor to clean energy and serve as an alternative base-load electric power but, he says, It should be the next-generation nuclear power, which solves some of the objections that people have to nuclear power but it has not been allowed to compete. The U.S. should develop fast reactors that consume nuclear waste and thorium reactors to prevent the creation of new long-lived nuclear waste, he says.
I added the bold, with which I agree.
A correction to another figure put forth by Hansen: According to IEA figures published in the annual World Energy Outlook, the use of fossil fuels in "percent talk" has not changed very much over this century. In the year 2000, it was 80.2%, in 2016, 81.0%, in 2024, 79.4%. In absolute numbers, since energy use is rising not falling, from 420 Exajoules in 2000 to 654 Exajoules in 2024.
In the period between 2000 and 2024, the use of dangerous coal has risen by 81 Exajoules, dangerous petroleum use has risen by 39 Exajoules and the use of dangerous natural gas has risen by 61 Exajoules.
I have almost all of the World Energy Outlooks in my files for this century, and some from the 1990s. I have constructed a table which I post here from time to time from the data in some select years:

The 2025 data, which I do not expect to be very different from previous years in terms of increases and percentages, will be published in the 2026 WEO, most likely in November.
My corrective comments notwithstanding, I agree that antinukism is a fact free cult, although I do expect members of this antinuke cults, some of whom write here, whose membership is either indifferent to fossil fuels, scientifically illiterate, or badly informed, any one, two or all three, are likely to respond with the usual chanted dogma.
Have a nice day.
surfered
(13,980 posts)NNadir
(38,377 posts)...believe that the collapse of the climate is real and is caused by human activity. It was this one, by John Pershing of Climate Central:
The John Rassweiler Impact Lecture with speaker Climate Central on the 20th Anniversary of D&R Greenways Johnson Education Center
It ended up being depressing, because it was all about whether people believe extreme global heating is real, and if they believe it's caused by human activities and so on.
In the Q&A - everyone in the room of course understood that climate change is real and caused by human activity - people were carrying on about solar and wind, and interestingly in a way that was completely contradictory, about maintaining land use.
As the gadfly, I spoke up for nuclear energy and in opposition to so called "renewable energy" by noting that people have been chain sawing Joshua Trees in California, cacti that are 100s of years old with vast root systems that sequester carbon, to install industrial solar plants that will be landfill in 20 to 25 years.
The Climate Central guy after indicating that climate central's role is not to endorse solutions - he went on the remark on something about the antinuke club the Union of Concerned "Scientists" while acknowledging it was just that, an antinuke organization - but rather to get people to understand what's happening.
I pointed out that I monitor the Mauna Loa CO2 regularly and that in 2000 the concentration of the dangerous fossil fuel waste peaked at 372 ppm and that this week we're running at about 432 ppm, and that it's a little late, too late in fact, to be quibbling.
It was, in the end, depressing.
We are indeed, out of time. There are nuclear engineers, my son among them I'm proud to say, who are trying to save what is left to save and can be saved, but every day there is less and less that can be saved.
We're cooked.
OKIsItJustMe
(21,966 posts)James E. Hansen April 11, 2022
New York is to be commended for adopting the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, legislation that calls for carbon-free electricity by 2040. However, future generations will judge us by results we achieve, not by our aspirations.
Tackling the climate crisis requires policies based on facts, not prejudice. Wind and solar power help with early decarbonization, where they can replace fossil fuels without need for large storage and transmission upgrades. However, systems overly dependent on intermittent, low-energy-density renewables as California and Germany have proven lead to skyrocketing electric rates, grid instability, and continued dependence on fossil fuels. Cost-optimized energy modeling reveals that nuclear power must ramp up for emissions to approach zero. In fact, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change finds that nuclear generation in 2050 grows by two to six times 2010 levels for all four illustrative pathways consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Todays policies need to reflect this awareness and initiate multi-decadal plans to achieve reliable, affordable, and sustainable energy systems.
Significantly, many governments are beginning to understand that nuclear power is part of the answer. France, which decarbonized its grid with nuclear years ago, has announced support for a new generation of reactors. So have the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Canada. In our country, several states have taken steps to preserve their existing plants, while others like Wyoming are developing passively safe advanced nuclear technology for the future. Members of Congress on both sides of the aisle are on board, too. Highlighting federal enthusiasm, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm recently said, We are very bullish on advanced nuclear reactors. Nuclear is dispatchable, clean baseload power, so we want to be able to bring more on.
New York belongs at the forefront of innovation, not on the sidelines. A brighter tomorrow is possible, but it requires setting politics and ideology aside. If New York is to meet its climate goals while providing ample, reliable energy essential for prosperity, it must engage in an inclusive discussion of solutions and craft a realistic plan that recognizes the value of nuclear power today and in the future.
I agree. Nuclear clearly must be part of the solution.
What does the IPCC say? (Sadly, the Seventh Assesment Report has not been released yet.)
Clarke, L., Y.-M. Wei, A. De La Vega Navarro, A. Garg, A.N. Hahmann, S. Khennas, I.M.L. Azevedo, A. Löschel, A.K. Singh, L. Steg, G. Strbac, K. Wada, 2022: Energy Systems. In IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. doi: 10.1017/9781009157926.008.
Executive Summary
Warming cannot be limited to well below 2°C without rapid and deep reductions in energy system carbon dioxide (CO₂) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot (2°C (>67%) with action starting in 2020), net energy system CO₂ emissions (interquartile range) fall by 8797% (6079%) in 2050. In 2030, in scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot, net CO₂ and GHG emissions fall by 3551% and 3852% respectively. In scenarios limiting warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot (2°C (>67%)), net electricity sector CO₂ emissions reach zero globally between 2045 and 2055 (2050 and 2080). ( high confidence) {6.7}
Prices have dropped rapidly over the last five years for several key energy system mitigation options, notably solar photovoltaics (PV), wind power, and batteries. From 2015 to 2020, the prices of electricity from PV and wind dropped 56% and 45%, respectively, and battery prices dropped by 64%. Electricity from PV and wind is now cheaper than electricity from fossil sources in many regions, electric vehicles are increasingly competitive with internal combustion engines, and large-scale battery storage on electricity grids is increasingly viable. ( high confidence) {6.3, 6.4}
Global wind and solar PV capacity and generation have increased rapidly. Solar PV grew by 170% (to 680 TWh); wind grew by 70% (to 1420 TWh) from 2015 to 2019. Policy, societal pressure to limit fossil generation, low interest rates, and cost reductions have all driven wind and solar PV deployment. Solar PV and wind together accounted for 21% of total low-carbon electricity generation and 8% of total electricity generation in 2019. Nuclear generation grew 9% between 2015 and 2019 and accounted for 10% of total generation in 2019 (2790 TWh); hydroelectric power grew by 10% and accounted for 16% (4290 TWh) of total generation. In total,low- and zero-carbon electricity generation technologies produced 37% of global electricity in 2019. ( high confidence) {6.3, 6.4}
Multiple energy supply options are available to reduce emissions over the next decade. Nuclear power and hydropower are already established technologies. Solar PV and wind are now cheaper than fossil-generated electricity in many locations. Bioenergy accounts for about a tenth of global primary energy. Carbon capture is widely used in the oil and gas industry, with early applications in electricity production and biofuels. It will not be possible to widely deploy all of these and other options without efforts to address the geophysical, environmental-ecological, economic, technological, socio-cultural, and institutional factors that can facilitate or hinder their implementation. ( high confidence) {6.4}
NNadir
(38,377 posts)...and minerals squandered on it.
If Dr. Hansen or anyone wants to claim that solar and wind are "cheap" they are ignoring the cost of redundancy, generally provided by fossil fuels, although there are plenty of human slaves in Africa to dig cobalt for batteries and copper to wire all this useless shit together.
I pointed to the excellent paper by Dr. Robert Idel blowing this "cheap" nonsense up:
LFSCOE: The True Cost of Solar and Wind Energy in Texas and Germany in Answer to the Question...
I agree with Dr. Hansen however that the need for large storage is pernicious. It is also unnecessary, since nuclear power plants can do something that land intensive and mineral intensive solar and wind junk can't do: Run continuously, day and night, without interruption.
Of course the real point of the OP is that I agree with him that antinukism is a quasi-religious cult. I might have slight reservations as to whether Dr. Hansen's prefix "quasi" actually applies and I've suggested in the OP places where, despite his strong support for nuclear energy, he may be mistaken on particulars with data.
But, again, I certainly agree emphatically antinukism is a cult.
A member of this cult, I've actually observed, attempted to imply that the World Nuclear Association is antinuclear the other day.
One hears these sorts of things, and one doesn't want to believe that one is hearing them.
This led to an exchange about "straw men" which I found to be appropriate, noting that I admired the strawman in the Wizard of Oz played by Ray Bolger in the movie, wanted to have a brain. Other strawmen in my experience seem to be uninterested in having brains.
The interview with Dr. Hansen in the OP took place in March of 2017. The average concentration of the dangerous fossil fuel waste carbon dioxide as reported at the Mauna Loa CO2 Observatory was 407.18 ppm. On April 29 of this year it was 432.48 ppm.
We're doing just great!!!!!
From 2018-2025, the investment in so called "renewable energy" was 4.563 trillion dollars.
What do we have to show for it?
I did watch a bit of the interview, wherein Dr. Hansen argued strongly against "received wisdom," as well as the inability to question one's self. I'm quite sure, as a good scientist, he would not regard himself as oracular, although there seem to be people who think he is.
I agree with him on many, most things, but I also feel quite ready to disagree with him as well, which I do if he claims that solar and wind junk is useful. It isn't.
There was a time, even in my early days at DU back in the early 2000's where I supported the idea that solar and wind had value. I am, after all, a good Democrat and that was part of our party line. This said, I've come to think of it as our answer to creationism. So called "renewable energy" doesn't work to reduce fossil fuel use. It entrenches fossil fuels. After the expenditure of trillions of dollars on that junk, none of which went to ameliorate the lives of the de facto slaves described in the Elements of Power, and after careful extensive work reviewing the geology of materials, issues in land use, and the huge environmental and material costs of connecting all this rickety shit together, I've changed my mind based on careful analysis of the data. There isn't enough copper on Earth to get solar and wind to the 148 Exajoules of energy that dangerous natural gas produced in 2024, never mind the 178 Exajoules produced by dangerous coal and the 193 Exajoules produced by dangerous petroleum.
The process of coming to this conclusion came from a conversation I had with the nuclear activist Rod Adams in his home many years ago.
Solar and wind to my mind are useless bourgeois affectations that is the province of the antinuke and "I'm not an antinuke" antinuke cults I observe here and elsewhere.
I think them to be absurd and clueless.
I am quite secure in asserting that nuclear energy is the only form of sustainable energy. The sooner this becomes recognized throughout the world, the better chance we'll have to save anything left to save, stuff that is left to save diminishing daily. No amount of strawman/scarecrow whining can change my mind in respect to this view, although I am proud to say, I have a long history of being able to change my mind, something with which antinukes and "I'm not an antinuke" antinukes clearly struggle.
Have a nice day.
OKIsItJustMe
(21,966 posts)Your obstinate Nothing but Nukes approach would be just as bad as a No Nukes approach. It would be a day late and a dollar short. (Nuclear power is notoriously behind schedule and over budget.)
Most countries agree that nuclear power must be part of any solution, but, are deploying renewables as quickly as possible.
Once again, please stop misrepresenting Hansens views, and mine as well. However history has shown that you will do neither.
thought crime
(1,741 posts)It is important to note that James Hansen is primarily a climate scientist and his "authority" is based more on his understanding of the problem of climate change and its causes than on his expertise or ability to suggest a solution.
Heres the money quote from a very recent article by James Hansen:
https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/politics
He seems to understand the transition to clean energy will take some time. Any safe technology that reduces the output of carbon should be welcomed by anyone concerned about the danger of fossil fuels.