Which crops are most vulnerable to climate change, and in which places?

Crops that thrive in very specific environments will face the toughest odds as climate change advances, but even the relatively resilient crops we rely on most—like wheat, corn and rice—will be affected.

October 23, 2024

Today, people around the world get more than half of their calories from just three crops: rice, corn, and wheat.¹ So what will happen as climate change alters the weather and soil conditions in which we grow them?

Big cereal crops are actually relatively resilient to climate changes, says David Des Marais, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at MIT. In the U.S., they’re grown in huge fields in the middle of the country. As the world gets hotter, they can relatively easily move northward, where they can find temperatures they’re well-suited for.

Still, cereal crops are vulnerable to changing conditions. Those crops have been bred to be relatively genetically uniform. That makes them the “Ferrari” of growing in their current environments, says Des Marais, but they may not be as high-performing in new landscapes.

In the future, climate change will play with yields in different locations, with big economic consequences. Even if crops can migrate, local economies will suffer, because farmers will need to switch to new staple crops. Certain areas may lose their agricultural economy altogether.² Already, we’re seeing climate change slow the rise in wheat yields in parts of Asia, Australia, South America and the Caribbean, and Southern and Western Europe.³ Rice production has been hindered in North America. And corn and soy yields have suffered in Latin America.⁴ Most of these declines, says Des Marais, are due to low rainfall, higher temperatures, or a combination of the two.



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¹ Awika, Joseph M, "Major cereal grains production and use around the world." ACS Publications, Volume 1089, 2011, doi:10.1021/bk-2011-1089.ch00.

² Rising, James and Naresh Devineni, "Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5." Nature Communications, Volume 11 2020, doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18725-w.

³ Advances in agricultural technology, and its continuing spread around the world, mean that overall crop yields continue to rise. Studies of the impacts of climate change on crop yields typically show results relative to a world without climate change.

⁴ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: "Chapter 5: Food, Fibre, and other Ecosystem Products." In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

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