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TexasTowelie

(122,528 posts)
Wed Aug 13, 2025, 10:12 PM Aug 13

Why the Ukrainian Frontline Isn't Collapsing -- But Russia Is - Econ Lessons



Historical Parallel. Hi, Mark Biernat here, and I claim that Ukraine’s lines will hold, Russia’s economy will collapse, and this invasion is a strategic failure for Moscow.

Russia’s recent advances in Ukraine may look like something on a map closeup, but history — and even chess — show they are far from decisive. In 1917, German General Oskar von Hutier pioneered infiltration tactics: elite stormtroopers bypassed strongpoints, achieving rapid tactical gains that shocked the Allies. Germany advanced further in weeks than in years of trench warfare — the Spring of 1918, yet the offensive collapsed because the gains were unsustainable. Poor logistics, exhausted troops, and a crumbling economy turned those battlefield victories into a strategic defeat.

Today, Russia is copying parts of that playbook: small-unit assaults, bypassing defenses, and exploiting weak points. But unlike Hutier’s elite stormtroopers, many Russian units are poorly trained, morale is mixed, logistics are fragile, and the economy is under severe strain. In chess, a player can win a pawn or a piece through clever tactics — yet still lose the match if those moves undermine their long-term position.

Ukraine’s defenses remain layered, adaptive, and backed by Western precision and intelligence. The reality: Russia’s 2025 gains are tactical, not the beginning of Ukraine’s collapse. And just like Germany in 1918, Russia’s economy will falter before it achieves any lasting strategic victory.
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