Kremlin Implosion: FSB Arrests Spark Civil War - Jason Jay Smart

Putin's strategy in the Ukraine war is collapsing, not from the front line, but from a "civil war" inside the Kremlin. This internal conflict—a purge using weaponized arrests—is the real reason Russia's front line is starving.

Late September 2025 saw coordinated detentions that rippled through the supply chain. Within 72 hours, commanders froze signatures, depots held parts, and vehicles sat on stands while rotations slipped. The October 13 on-camera arrest of a general reinforced the signal: television can jail a commander, but it cannot move a convoy.

Inside Moscow, the contest between the FSB and Rosgvardiya drives the paralysis. Alexander Bortnikov’s FSB uses economic cases to scare managers into silence. Viktor Zolotov’s Rosgvardiya, which absorbed OMON and SOBR, guards regime assets. As this FSB purge multiplies, files replace orders and lawyers override mechanics. The Investigative Committee sequences interrogations to remove key staff, paralyzing logistics.

Factory floors feel the choke first. A BMP line trims hulls and spares when payments stall. Training hours shrink as sorties are rationed. Managers delay approvals to dodge audits. Crews lose currency while vehicles wait. Around Moscow, checkpoints multiply, adding hours to shipments. Inventory may exist on paper; readiness does not.

Macro pressure deepens the shock. A 16.5 percent key rate raises carrying costs. A 22 percent VAT proposal raises procurement risk. New United States sanctions freeze payment routes. Indian refineries pause orders. This is how a Kremlin power struggle converts fear into friction, starving the front line even when warehouses look full.

CHAPTERS:

0:00 – Moscow’s War Machine Stalls
1:45 – The Artery That Fed the War
3:25 – Fuel Is Movement
5:00 – Strategic Catastrophe for the Kremlin
6:40 – Russia’s Economy on Fumes
8:30 – Nationwide Fuel Crisis
10:10 – Ukraine’s Expanding Drone Offensive
12:05 – Russia’s Industrial Implosion
13:30 – Strategic Precision: Ukraine’s Smart Targeting
14:45 – Collapse of Putin’s Stability Myth
15:55 – Ukraine Turns the Tide