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nitpicked

(1,103 posts) Sun Apr 27, 2025, 04:54 AM Yesterday

Falling vaccine rates could mean millions of measles cases: Study

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5268497-vaccine-rates-measles-outbreak-study/?tbref=hp

A new study warns that the U.S. could see millions of new measles cases over the next 25 years if vaccination rates continue to fall.
The research, published in science journal JAMA, used modeling to forecast the number of measles cases in several scenarios, including vaccination rates holding steady, rising or falling.
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If vaccination rates hold steady at today’s level, researchers predict 851,300 cases of measles over the next 25 years.

But if vaccination rates drop just 10 percent, there could be 11.1 million measles cases in that same time frame. If vaccination rates drop by 50 percent, there could be 51.2 million cases of measles over the next 25 percent, the study notes.

Assuming that vaccination rates fell at the same level for all childhood vaccines, measles isn’t the only dangerous, previously eliminated disease that could make a comeback.

Cases of polio and rubella could also rise, leading to a potential 10. 3 million hospitalizations and 159,200 deaths, along with thousands of cases of post-measles neurological complications, rubella-related birth defects and post-polio paralysis.
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Falling vaccine rates could mean millions of measles cases: Study (Original Post) nitpicked Yesterday OP

From the Stanford Medicine PR nitpicked Yesterday #1

nitpicked

(1,103 posts)

1. From the Stanford Medicine PR

Reply to nitpicked (Original post)

Sun Apr 27, 2025, 05:00 AM

Yesterday

https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2025/04/measles-vaccination.html

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Kiang: If vaccination were to fall by even 10% today, measles cases would skyrocket to 11.1 million over the next 25 years. If vaccination rates were cut in half, we’d expect 51.2 million cases of measles, 9.9 million cases of rubella, 4.3 million cases of polio and 200 cases of diphtheria over 25 years. This would lead to 10.3 million hospitalizations and 159,200 deaths, plus an estimated 51,200 children with post-measles neurological complications, 10,700 cases of birth defects due to rubella and 5,400 people paralyzed from polio. Measles would become endemic in less than five years, and rubella would become endemic in less than 20. Under these conditions, polio became endemic in about half of simulations in around 20 years.

What differences did you find at the state level?

Kiang: Massachusetts has high vaccination rates and was consistently low risk. Both California and Texas were higher risk, even after accounting for larger population size, because vaccination rates in both have dropped and there’s a lot of travel to those states. Our model assumed there was no spillover of infections across state lines, so the numbers could be an underestimate.
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