Science

nitpicked

(1,032 posts) Tue Jan 28, 2025, 01:55 PM Jan 28

Astronomers discover 196-foot asteroid with 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032

https://www.space.com/180-foot-asteroid-1-in-83-chance-hitting-Earth-2032

A newly discovered asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, has a 1-in-83 chance of striking Earth in December of 2032. The asteroid is estimated to be 196 feet (60 meters) wide, and it is currently 27 million miles away.

The near-Earth object (NEO) discovered in 2024, which is around half as wide as a football field is long, will make a very close approach to Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. It's estimated to come within around 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometers) of Earth on that day, according to NASA's Center of NEO Studies (CNEOS). However, when orbital uncertainties are considered, that close approach could turn out to be a direct hit on our planet.

Such an impact could cause an explosion in the atmosphere, called an "airburst," or could cause an impact crater when it slams into the ground.

This is enough to see asteroid 2024 YR4 leap to the top of the European Space Agency's NEO impact Risk List and NASA's Sentry Risk Table.
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10 replies

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Highlight:

Astronomers discover 196-foot asteroid with 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032 (Original Post) nitpicked Jan 28 OP

"Don't Look Up"... prophetic film-making? Moostache Jan 28 #1

Don't look up underpants Jan 28 #2

I hope the Jewish Space Lasers will direct it to whatever golf course Drumph is playing at the time. jls4561 Jan 28 #3

1 in 83 is just over a one percent chance. PoindexterOglethorpe Jan 28 #4

Lots of folks buy lottery tickets points Jan 28 #6

Right. And the lottery ticket buyers are idiots PoindexterOglethorpe Jan 28 #7

well, if tRump is still dictatoring I guess it will put US out of our misery. nt yaesu Jan 28 #5

Significant digits! Foolacious Jan 28 #8

Like converting 37. Celsius to 98.6 Fahrenheit ... eppur_se_muova Jan 30 #9

"likely around the same size as the 1908 Tunguska rock or the Meteor Crater rock" muriel_volestrangler Feb 1 #10

Moostache

(10,367 posts)

1. "Don't Look Up"... prophetic film-making?

Reply to nitpicked (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2025, 01:57 PM

Jan 28

Sort of like "Idiocracy".

At this point, I have doubts that we make it to 2028 without losing the union and the Constitution, so 2032 is beyond my event horizon presently...

underpants

(189,255 posts)

2. Don't look up

Reply to nitpicked (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2025, 01:57 PM

Jan 28

jls4561

(2,109 posts)

3. I hope the Jewish Space Lasers will direct it to whatever golf course Drumph is playing at the time.

Reply to nitpicked (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2025, 02:05 PM

Jan 28

PoindexterOglethorpe

(27,434 posts)

4. 1 in 83 is just over a one percent chance.

Reply to nitpicked (Original post)

Tue Jan 28, 2025, 02:36 PM

Jan 28

I'm not going to worry.

points

(36 posts)

6. Lots of folks buy lottery tickets

Reply to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #4)

Tue Jan 28, 2025, 02:42 PM

Jan 28

With a significantly lower chance of winning than one percent.
One percent is damn high when the stakes are so high.

This said, worrying definitely won't change the trajectory, unless you can influence NASA

PoindexterOglethorpe

(27,434 posts)

7. Right. And the lottery ticket buyers are idiots

Reply to points (Reply #6)

Tue Jan 28, 2025, 02:45 PM

Jan 28

who don't understand odds.

Every so often astronomers (including My Son The Astronomer) point out that the chances of something of significant size hitting Earth is incredibly small.