Science
Related: About this forumNASA Has Some Good News About The Asteroid That Could Hit Earth
21 February 2025
By AFP
The chance that an asteroid capable of wiping out a city will hit Earth in eight years has been cut in half to around 1.5 percent, according to new calculations from NASA.
The drop in odds had been widely anticipated by the global astronomical community, which now broadly expects the probability the asteroid will hit Earth on December 22, 2032 to fall down to zero.
For more than 24 hours, the asteroid did have the highest probability of hitting Earth 3.1 percent of such a big space rock in modern forecasting.
Updated calculations posted by NASA late Wednesday said the odds of a direct hit had fallen to 1.5 percent.
The European Space Agency's separate calculations plunged to 1.38 percent.
Richard Moissl, head of the ESA's planetary defence office, told AFP this had been expected as the "uncertainty region" where the asteroid could strike starts to "slip off" Earth.
More:
https://www.sciencealert.com/nasa-has-some-good-news-about-the-asteroid-that-could-hit-earth

SWBTATTReg
(24,961 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(103,214 posts)At about 4090 metres (130-300ft) in width, asteroid 2024 YR4 is far smaller than that which ended the reign of the dinosaurs a body that was about six to nine miles (10-15km) wide. However, an impact with Earth could still have caused death and destruction: the asteroid was deemed capable of releasing energy equivalent to 7.8 megatonnes of TNT explosive.
As a result, a planetary defence response was triggered, beginning with experts closely tracking the trajectory of the asteroid. Initially the likelihood of an impact in 2032 rose, reaching 3.1% on 18 February this year, but data from Nasa reveals it is now 0.0017%.
In other words, there is 99.9983% chance the asteroid will miss Earth. Indeed, the city-killing asteroid currently ranks zero on the Torino impact hazard scale that ranges from a no-risk nought to a global-catastrophe 10.
The change was not unexpected: as the European Space Agency previously pointed out, an asteroids impact probability often rises before dropping off as additional observations are made.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/feb/24/chance-giant-asteroid-hitting-earth-2032-falls
SWBTATTReg
(24,961 posts)More than likely, we'll be in the clear.
RainCaster
(12,294 posts)That would make my day.
Judi Lynn
(163,098 posts)


