Science

Judi Lynn

(163,098 posts) Mon Feb 24, 2025, 03:59 AM Feb 24

NASA Has Some Good News About The Asteroid That Could Hit Earth

21 February 2025
By AFP

The chance that an asteroid capable of wiping out a city will hit Earth in eight years has been cut in half to around 1.5 percent, according to new calculations from NASA.

The drop in odds had been widely anticipated by the global astronomical community, which now broadly expects the probability the asteroid will hit Earth on December 22, 2032 to fall down to zero.

For more than 24 hours, the asteroid did have the highest probability of hitting Earth – 3.1 percent – of such a big space rock in modern forecasting.

Updated calculations posted by NASA late Wednesday said the odds of a direct hit had fallen to 1.5 percent.

The European Space Agency's separate calculations plunged to 1.38 percent.

Richard Moissl, head of the ESA's planetary defence office, told AFP this had been expected as the "uncertainty region" where the asteroid could strike starts to "slip off" Earth.

More:
https://www.sciencealert.com/nasa-has-some-good-news-about-the-asteroid-that-could-hit-earth

5 replies

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NASA Has Some Good News About The Asteroid That Could Hit Earth (Original Post) Judi Lynn Feb 24 OP

A little better I guess. I'd rather have it 100% that it is NOT going to hit us. SWBTATTReg Feb 24 #1

Would 99.9983% do you? muriel_volestrangler Feb 24 #4

A much better odd, but I'll wait too, until they get more refined measurements, as they study the flight path. SWBTATTReg Feb 24 #5

I'm ok with it hitting the CPAC event RainCaster Feb 24 #2

By all means! How long would it take before any humans admitted they were gone? Judi Lynn Feb 24 #3

SWBTATTReg

(24,961 posts)

1. A little better I guess. I'd rather have it 100% that it is NOT going to hit us.

Reply to Judi Lynn (Original post)

Mon Feb 24, 2025, 04:07 AM

Feb 24

muriel_volestrangler

(103,214 posts)

4. Would 99.9983% do you?

Reply to SWBTATTReg (Reply #1)

Mon Feb 24, 2025, 07:37 PM

Feb 24

Chance of giant asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 falls to 0.0017%

At about 40–90 metres (130-300ft) in width, asteroid 2024 YR4 is far smaller than that which ended the reign of the dinosaurs – a body that was about six to nine miles (10-15km) wide. However, an impact with Earth could still have caused death and destruction: the asteroid was deemed capable of releasing energy equivalent to 7.8 megatonnes of TNT explosive.

As a result, a planetary defence response was triggered, beginning with experts closely tracking the trajectory of the asteroid. Initially the likelihood of an impact in 2032 rose, reaching 3.1% on 18 February this year, but data from Nasa reveals it is now 0.0017%.

In other words, there is 99.9983% chance the asteroid will miss Earth. Indeed, the “city-killing” asteroid currently ranks zero on the Torino impact hazard scale that ranges from a no-risk nought to a global-catastrophe 10.

The change was not unexpected: as the European Space Agency previously pointed out, an asteroid’s impact probability often rises before dropping off as additional observations are made.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/feb/24/chance-giant-asteroid-hitting-earth-2032-falls