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douglas9

(5,827 posts)
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 07:19 AM Yesterday

Here's Why Weather Forecasts Have Seemed So Inaccurate Lately

Is there anything more annoying than leaving the house in shorts and flip flops, only to get caught in an unexpected downpour? The weather report is rarely spot-on, but if forecasts have seemed particularly inaccurate recently, it’s because they have been.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was among several agencies gutted by the Trump Administration’s Department of Government Efficiency in 2025. That February, the U.S. Office of Personnel Management abruptly fired 880 NOAA employees. Two months later, NOAA approved over 1,000 deferred resignations or buyouts. These sweeping staff cuts forced the National Weather Service (NWS), the forecasting arm of NOAA, to halt or reduce weather balloon launches at 11 locations.

“We’re going to lose data because of this staffing,” Michael Morgan, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and former NOAA administrator, said at the time. “And that loss of data then translates into less precise forecasts, more uncertainties in the forecast.”

Before the cuts, the NWS was launching weather balloons twice per day (once in the morning and once in the evening) from 100 locations. Today, the number of morning launches in the Lower 48 has been reduced by half, according to MyRadar senior meteorologist Matthew Cappucci.



https://gizmodo.com/heres-why-weather-forecasts-have-seemed-so-inaccurate-lately-2000779436

34 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Here's Why Weather Forecasts Have Seemed So Inaccurate Lately (Original Post) douglas9 Yesterday OP
Anything more annoying than leaving the house in shorts and flip-flops and getting caught in the rain? luv2fly Yesterday #1
Leaving the house in flip-flops is bad enough Redleg Yesterday #2
You must not live in California. chia Yesterday #22
I do not Redleg 10 hrs ago #34
That is the part of the article you choose to comment upon?... MiHale Yesterday #3
Indeed it is, thanks for noticing luv2fly Yesterday #6
Got cha...👍 MiHale Yesterday #7
I'm not partial to flip flops RB77 Yesterday #17
Never wore ff's..never will... MiHale Yesterday #30
Farmers depend on accuracy. yourmovemonkey Yesterday #9
Yes, I know I live in farmland... MiHale Yesterday #31
It matters to me a lot. I don't have a car so I walk about an hour to the grocery store, and part-way home progree Yesterday #4
I have noticed this recently Bluestocking Yesterday #5
My wife and I use different apps and get different forecasts underpants Yesterday #24
"I'm not able to predict severe weather with the confidence I normally would. That is extremely concerning." progree Yesterday #8
Living in tornado alley this can be a big deal Racygrandma Yesterday #10
Tornadoes are a bad example, being unpredictable..... ColoringFool Yesterday #15
Yes, it was 2 am Racygrandma Yesterday #16
Republican governance is dysfunctional by design dlk Yesterday #11
GOP Mantra - Government is broken. Elect me and I''ll break it more to prove my point AZLD4Candidate Yesterday #12
Exactly dlk Yesterday #14
I haven't noticed. Has this alleged inaccuracy been a major problem?.... ColoringFool Yesterday #13
'leaving the house in shorts and flip flops, only to get caught in an unexpected downpour' Intractable Yesterday #18
Every day it says rain that never comes. Historic NY Yesterday #19
Everybody talks about the weather but no ones does anything about it underpants Yesterday #27
Social Murder: littlemissmartypants Yesterday #20
Good info thanks. underpants Yesterday #25
Social murder - glad to learn a new term. yellow dahlia Yesterday #33
The republicans want TO PRIVTIZE weather gathering and reporting. It is part of their long-range plans to..... usaf-vet Yesterday #21
Sen. Santorum tried to privatize weather in 2005 to Accu Weather underpants Yesterday #26
While weather events are becoming more extreme due to climate change, which Trump says is a Chinese hoax. surfered Yesterday #23
Surgery canceled due to global warming JillyUpstateNY Yesterday #28
Well at least I'm not the only one, the forcasts are either at minute or not ar all Historic NY Yesterday #29
K & R malaise Yesterday #32

luv2fly

(2,788 posts)
1. Anything more annoying than leaving the house in shorts and flip-flops and getting caught in the rain?
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 07:26 AM
Yesterday

I can name about a hundred things more annoying.

If getting caught in the rain is someone's biggest annoyance, they lead a pretty blessed life.

Redleg

(7,061 posts)
2. Leaving the house in flip-flops is bad enough
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 07:37 AM
Yesterday

Just a little peeve of mine. I never felt really clothed wearing flip-flops. I think they are fine for wearing at the pool or at the gym shower. To each his/her own.

I should add that I am not a fan of any open toed slip on shoes. I get behind students wearing these and they can't seem to walk at a reasonable pace. Plus, dudes, if you have ugly fucking feet, wear a regular shoe.

Redleg

(7,061 posts)
34. I do not
Thu Jul 2, 2026, 11:31 AM
10 hrs ago

I do live in a hot and humid place though and wish I did live in a more dry heat like where I grew up in Utah.

luv2fly

(2,788 posts)
6. Indeed it is, thanks for noticing
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 08:31 AM
Yesterday

I could bitch and moan about how Trump has destroyed weather forecasting too, but there's enough bitching about Trump to last a lifetime.

MiHale

(13,297 posts)
30. Never wore ff's..never will...
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 01:16 PM
Yesterday

Think you meant to comment to someone else, happens all the time.



MiHale

(13,297 posts)
31. Yes, I know I live in farmland...
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 01:21 PM
Yesterday

I also need a more accurate forecast though…not a farm but a rather large garden that keeps us in food for a pretty long time and plenty to share in the neighborhood.

Think you meant to comment to someone else…happens a lot.


progree

(13,121 posts)
4. It matters to me a lot. I don't have a car so I walk about an hour to the grocery store, and part-way home
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 08:26 AM
Yesterday

carrying a week's worth of groceries. (I take a bus home, but still it's 2/3 of a mile walk from the bus stop to home, which is quite a lot carrying $150 worth of groceries. It's about a 3.5 hour round trip including a bit over an hour at the grocery store.

So it is crucial to find a 4 hour window where I can be almost assured I won't get rained on. Yes, I do carry a poncho and wear a ball cap to keep it out of my eyes just in case. But having the groceries rained on, or being in the rain for an hour is something i want to avoid. Even with the poncho, I'd still be soaking wet from the knees on down while grocery shopping.

I have been thinking that in the last several months or more, the forecast for a given day (next day or day after) has been changing quite a lot from forecast to forecast. Now I know it wasn't my imagination or projecting from what I read about NOAA / NWS cuts back in the DOGE days.





Bluestocking

(898 posts)
5. I have noticed this recently
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 08:29 AM
Yesterday

Figured it was trumps fault but now I have verification. Thanks for the confirmation

underpants

(197,930 posts)
24. My wife and I use different apps and get different forecasts
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 10:33 AM
Yesterday

I use The Weather Channel. She uses the Weather app that comes on Apple phones. Not hugely different but different.

A coworker told me that she and her spouse do the same.

progree

(13,121 posts)
8. "I'm not able to predict severe weather with the confidence I normally would. That is extremely concerning."
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 08:43 AM
Yesterday

Excerpt from the article. And concerns about predicting tornados. So it's a bigger issue than getting caught in the rain in flip flops.

Racygrandma

(215 posts)
10. Living in tornado alley this can be a big deal
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 09:39 AM
Yesterday

Just a few weeks ago an f2 tornado hit a house north of town like at 2 am, killed the guy. No warning at all. Check out the story I am in Wichita

ColoringFool

(1,429 posts)
15. Tornadoes are a bad example, being unpredictable.....
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 09:47 AM
Yesterday

Why Tornadoes Are Still Hard To Forecast – Even Though Storm Predictions Are Improving – Texas A&M Stories https://share.google/AjIlSpBk9ufJ4OCtf

dlk

(13,472 posts)
11. Republican governance is dysfunctional by design
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 09:39 AM
Yesterday

I’ve always found it ironic republicans consistently beat the drum that government is the problem. Yet they are so eager to keep their government jobs and line their pockets.

ColoringFool

(1,429 posts)
13. I haven't noticed. Has this alleged inaccuracy been a major problem?....
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 09:44 AM
Yesterday

Seems to me in my 76 years people have griped about the weather and weather forecasts in about equal proportion.

I'm betting the predictions are all spot-on for the excessive heat in the East.

Intractable

(2,613 posts)
18. 'leaving the house in shorts and flip flops, only to get caught in an unexpected downpour'
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 09:55 AM
Yesterday

It's a way of life here in southern Florida.

It goes the other way too, with events cancelled due to forecasts of rain that never come to be.

underpants

(197,930 posts)
27. Everybody talks about the weather but no ones does anything about it
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 10:50 AM
Yesterday

Well except for Trump who is basically ignoring it.

littlemissmartypants

(35,591 posts)
20. Social Murder:
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 10:09 AM
Yesterday
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_murder

Social murder (translated from the German term sozialer Mord) is a concept used to describe unnatural or premature deaths that occurs due to preventable problems in social, political, or economic systems, rather than the direct violence often associated with murder. The term originally specifically described deaths due to problems stemming from working conditions under capitalism, the term has since expanded to include preventable deaths due to systemic issues other than ones believed to be inherent under capitalism.

The origin of the term social murder is credited to German philosopher Friedrich Engels, who coined the term in 1845 to describe premature, preventable deaths among the English working class. Social murder has since been used by left-wing politicians, journalists, and activists to describe deaths attributed to larger social forces. The term has particularly re-emerged as a popular term in the 21st century, having been used by commentators to describe events such as the Grenfell tower fire, the 2024 Spanish floods, and deaths from UnitedHealth Group's insurance policies.

AKA SLS:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shit_life_syndrome

Shit life syndrome (SLS) is a phrase used by physicians in the United Kingdom, the United States, and Australia for the effect that a variety of poverty or abuse-induced disorders can have on patients.

usaf-vet

(7,882 posts)
21. The republicans want TO PRIVTIZE weather gathering and reporting. It is part of their long-range plans to.....
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 10:11 AM
Yesterday

..... PRIVATIZE all government services. All of which leads to worse services and, in many cases, leads to earlier deaths. Which, in the mind of this 79-year-old, is directly connected to wanting to kill off as many as they can BEFORE they can collect the Social Security they are owed. As the likes of the current POTUS, the desire to privatize Social Security. And grab the cash! Four generations of this family have served in the military to protect the Constitution against ALL enemies, foreign and DOMESTIC!

underpants

(197,930 posts)
26. Sen. Santorum tried to privatize weather in 2005 to Accu Weather
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 10:39 AM
Yesterday

Who just happened to be donors to his PAC.


Santorum's weather crusade
https://www.politico.com/story/2012/01/7-year-old-attack-on-weather-service-could-cloud-santorums-campaign-071129


Former Senator Rick Santorum's "private weather" controversy refers to his sponsorship of the National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005 (S. 786). The bill sought to stop the National Weather Service (NWS) from competing with commercial weather companies—such as Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather—by prohibiting the free, public dissemination of government weather forecasts.The legislation sparked major backlash and ultimately died in committee due to the following dynamics:

Commercial Ties: Critics alleged political impropriety because executives from AccuWeather were notable campaign contributors to Santorum's political action committee.

Public Outcry: The public and aviation groups strongly opposed the bill. It was widely criticized as an attempt to lock taxpayer-funded, life-saving weather data behind corporate paywalls.

Hurricane Katrina: Santorum doubled down on his stance shortly after the bill stalled. He publicly criticized the NWS for what he deemed to be "insufficient" evacuation warnings ahead of Hurricane Katrina, drawing further national criticism.

surfered

(15,189 posts)
23. While weather events are becoming more extreme due to climate change, which Trump says is a Chinese hoax.
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 10:22 AM
Yesterday

JillyUpstateNY

(75 posts)
28. Surgery canceled due to global warming
Wed Jul 1, 2026, 11:16 AM
Yesterday

Today, I was scheduled for an outpatient procedure to check out a small spot inside an organ and remove it so they can see what it is. I had to come at 6 AM and the surgery was supposed to be at seven. I was all hooked up when medical personnel started coming in the room and telling me there was a delay because the operating room was too hot and humid, and that would pose a risk of infection. It was supposed to take 20 minutes to fix, and then it was half an hour and then almost 2 hours when they finally decided to cancel all surgeries. Every one of the staff, including my doctor, agreed that climate denial is ridiculous.Tomorrow is supposed to be worse. Around 100, but at least I got a complimentary cup of coffee from the café and an assurance that I probably wouldn’t have to pay for this morning. The procedure will be rescheduled soon. But it’s only the beginning of July!

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