Selected Saturday NWS guesses about the East Coast noreaster

(Faux weather backed off just a touch about the potential.)

https://www.weather.gov/

Morehead City (NC, including Outer Banks)
(snip)
Tonight is when the forecast becomes more uncertain given model
disagreements in the track and strength of the low. There are three
camps of solutions:

1) the low will remain off the SC/NC coast until Sunday before
it moves inland near the Crystal Coast, pushing a warm front
north across the CWA late Saturday/Sunday and lingering through
Monday

2) the low will track along or just offshore of the Outer Banks

3) the low will remain offshore with a second low forming off the
NC/VA border, both of which move out to sea early next week
(snip)

Wakefield (Richmond VA area):
(snip)
The brunt of the impacts from the coastal low are still anticipated
tonight through Sunday. The initial sfc low offshore of the Carolinas
should lift northward toward at least the srn NC coast tonight.
Beyond that time, there is STILL a good deal of spread in the model
guidance and ensembles surrounding the evolution of the low(s).
There are generally two camps in the guidance: 1) the initial sfc
low to our S remains the primary feature and moves northward
along the coast and potentially inland into NC and 2) a new low
becomes the primary low off of the the northern Mid-Atlantic
and New England coasts, with a sprawling, bifurcated feature
taking over by later Sunday and Monday. The first scenario would
generally portend to more significant impacts across coastal
portions of the local area (especially in the wind and coastal
flooding department), while the second scenario would be more
impactful for those located NE of our forecast area.
(snip)

Mount Holly (Philadelphia) :
(snip)
What has changed: Latest deterministic model guidance has
trended weaker and east with a more elongated low pressure
system compared to previous forecasts. What this means is that
the QPF forecast has been lowered. Even with this current trend,
coastal impacts are still expected to be significant. Also,
with these run to run variations of the deterministic guidance,
it is important to look at the ensembles guidance which does
still have both outcomes of a stronger and more west placement
of the low along with the weaker eastward low. Due to this
spread and uncertainty, not too many changes were made overall
aside from the QPF forecast. Guidance will likely continue to
struggle and vary from run to run with this system until it
actually forms a well defined low pressure center sometime today
or tonight. Our marine hazards were upgraded due to consistent
confidence for gale to storm warning criteria being met. There
is more uncertainty for the High Wind Watch, so that remains
unchanged at this time.
(snip)

Upton (NYC) :
(snip)
There has been no significant changes to the forecast with this
update. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty across the
guidance with the phasing of the aforementioned northern stream
and southern stream and how the coastal low will react. The lack
of agreement seems to be coming from messier set up of the
southern stream low as it is much broader and has several
perturbations rotating through and moving up the east coast. In
turn the guidance could be struggling on surface low pressure
center and if it should develop other areas of low pressure or
not. The GFS has overall trended weaker, but the latest ECMWF
has trended more aggressive again. Opposite of what the two were
showing 24 hours ago. This gave enough uncertainty to stick
with Watch headlines for now. As for timing, there has been
overall agreement in a later timing. This would mean some
impacts lasting longer into Monday and have extended the watch
timing to cover this.
(snip)