Let's talk about whether Trump can cancel the midterm elections.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about whether Trump can cancel the midterm elections.

We've had a number of questions and comments on this and I normally just say there's no mechanism for that. We're just going to run through some key things that get lost and ignored when this topic comes up.

Here's the big thing. The federal government does not run the elections. The states do. If Trump says the elections are cancelled, the states would have to agree and have to play along. Do you see Newsom saying, "Sure, buddy. I'll cancel the election for you." Unlikely, right? But what about the states where the governors would play along? And sadly, there would probably be some.

Well, the states that play along lose representation in Congress. The current representatives and senators up for reelection don't get to stay in office. Let's hit the basic constitutional aspect. The 20th Amendment says plainly, "The terms of the president and the vice president shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of senators and representatives at noon on the 3rd day of January.” Their terms still end.

What happens with those empty seats? Well, in the House when vacancies happen in the representation from any state, the executive authority thereof shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies. That's the Constitution. They remain empty until an election.

The Senate is a little different and in most states the governor can appoint someone. So, states that cooperate with some future push by Trump would lose representation and it would guarantee a Republican loss of the House.

Now, any state that wanted to cooperate would have to push it through their state legislature. And let's be real, Trump has less sway over state legislatures than he does Republicans in DC. But even then, why would Republicans in DC want to help him in their terms?

So, the short version is that there is no mechanism by which Trump can just cancel the election. It takes state legislatures to cancel or delay elections, and it only hurts the states that would agree.

I'm sure somebody is going to suggest doomsday scenarios. Do you know how many polling locations there are in the US? You probably don't because there's no centralized list because it's managed by states and counties, but there's about 100,000 more or less. Then there's mail-in voting and so on. The logistics of the doomsday scenario is just incredibly complex.

The reality is that by the time you get to something that is even remotely feasible, the question isn't about the midterms--it's about the end of the federal government as a whole because any action undertaken to cancel the elections that has even a remote chance of success would be so dramatic that the federal government's legitimacy as a whole would be called into question.

If that was to happen, the least of your worries would be voting for representatives that realistically wouldn't really matter much anymore. The worst thing that people can do is normalize the idea that this is even remotely possible because it draws attention away from the things that are likely like challenging votes, results, voter suppression, and so on. There's enough dirty tricks in politics to worry about. We really don't need to invent more.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.